Ellington Financial Llc Stock Price Prediction
| EFC Stock | USD 11.67 0.20 1.74% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
52
Oversold | Overbought |
Ellington Financial LLC stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ellington Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ellington Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ellington Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ellington Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ellington Financial LLC, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ellington Financial's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.53) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.42 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.62 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.72 | Wall Street Target Price 13.54 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ellington Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ellington stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ellington Financial over a specific investment horizon. Using Ellington Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ellington Financial LLC from the perspective of Ellington Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ellington Financial using Ellington Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ellington using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ellington Financial's stock price.
Ellington Financial Implied Volatility | 46.49 |
Ellington Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ellington Financial LLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ellington Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ellington Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ellington Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ellington Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ellington Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ellington because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ellington Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 11.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ellington |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ellington Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ellington Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ellington Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ellington Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ellington Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ellington Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ellington Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ellington Financial's historical news coverage. Ellington Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.65 and 13.27, respectively. We have considered Ellington Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ellington Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ellington Financial LLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ellington Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ellington Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ellington Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ellington Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.81 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.67 | 11.46 | 0.09 |
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Ellington Financial Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April Ellington Financial LLC is traded for 11.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Ellington is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Ellington Financial is about 1131.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.65. About 54.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.82. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ellington Financial LLC has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.86. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of April 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Ellington Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ellington Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ellington Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ellington Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Ellington Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ellington Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EARN | Ellington Residential Mortgage | 0.10 | 9 per month | 1.79 | 0.07 | 2.87 | (3.35) | 7.28 | |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital | (0.43) | 10 per month | 2.20 | (0.02) | 3.09 | (3.96) | 9.72 | |
| BRMK | Broadmark Realty Capital | (0.15) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.02 | (4.08) | 8.68 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | (0.33) | 12 per month | 2.24 | (0.03) | 2.73 | (4.15) | 12.01 | |
| DX | Dynex Capital | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.67 | (2.85) | 8.02 | |
| ACRE | Ares Commercial Real | (0.23) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.74 | (4.63) | 10.15 | |
| CHMI | Cherry Hill Mortgage | (0.21) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.26 | (2.74) | 14.31 | |
| TWO | Two Harbors Investments | (0.51) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.17 | (2.97) | 9.06 | |
| AGNC | AGNC Investment Corp | 0.12 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.77 | (2.20) | 8.03 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | (0.13) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.39 | (3.25) | 10.38 | |
| CIM | Chimera Investment | (0.04) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.78 | (4.03) | 11.28 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.29 | (3.82) | 10.88 |
Ellington Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ellington price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ellington using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ellington charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ellington Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ellington Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ellington Financial LLC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ellington Financial based on analysis of Ellington Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ellington Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ellington Financial's related companies. | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0993 | 0.16 | 0.14 | Price To Sales Ratio | 20.95 | 17.38 | 2.37 |
Story Coverage note for Ellington Financial
The number of cover stories for Ellington Financial depends on current market conditions and Ellington Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ellington Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ellington Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ellington Financial Short Properties
Ellington Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ellington Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ellington Financial LLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ellington Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellington Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 230.5 M |
Check out Ellington Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Ellington Financial LLC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ellington Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Ellington Stock analysis
When running Ellington Financial's price analysis, check to measure Ellington Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ellington Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Ellington Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ellington Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ellington Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ellington Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years |
Is Ellington Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellington Financial. If investors know Ellington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ellington Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.53) | Dividend Share 1.8 | Earnings Share 0.89 | Revenue Per Share 3.689 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of Ellington Financial LLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ellington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ellington Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ellington Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ellington Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ellington Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ellington Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ellington Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ellington Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.