Elanco Animal Health Stock Price Prediction
| ELAN Stock | USD 13.31 0.15 1.11% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
32
Oversold | Overbought |
Elanco Animal Health stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Elanco Animal shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Elanco Animal's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Elanco Animal and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Elanco Animal's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Elanco Animal Health, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Elanco Animal's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.097 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.92 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.06 | Wall Street Target Price 17.75 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Elanco Animal based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Elanco stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Elanco Animal over a specific investment horizon. Using Elanco Animal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Elanco Animal Health from the perspective of Elanco Animal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Elanco Animal using Elanco Animal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Elanco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Elanco Animal's stock price.
Elanco Animal Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Elanco Animal's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Elanco. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Elanco Animal stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Elanco Animal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Elanco Animal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Elanco Animal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 13.0276 | Short Percent 0.0308 | Short Ratio 3.72 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.7 M | 50 Day MA 15.5314 |
Elanco Animal Health Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Elanco Animal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Elanco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Elanco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Elanco Animal Health. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Elanco Animal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Elanco Animal.
Elanco Animal Implied Volatility | 54.78 |
Elanco Animal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Elanco Animal Health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Elanco Animal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Elanco Animal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Elanco Animal's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Elanco Animal. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Elanco Animal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Elanco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Elanco Animal after-hype prediction price | USD 13.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Elanco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Elanco Animal Health will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.42% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Elanco Animal trading at USD 13.31, that is roughly USD 0.46 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Elanco Animal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Elanco Animal Health options at the current volatility level of 54.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Elanco |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Elanco Animal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Elanco Animal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Elanco Animal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Elanco Animal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Elanco Animal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Elanco Animal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Elanco Animal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Elanco Animal's historical news coverage. Elanco Animal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.36 and 15.32, respectively. We have considered Elanco Animal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Elanco Animal is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Elanco Animal Health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Elanco Animal Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Elanco Animal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Elanco Animal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Elanco Animal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.97 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.31 | 13.34 | 0.23 |
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Elanco Animal Hype Timeline
Elanco Animal Health is currently traded for 13.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Elanco is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.34 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Elanco Animal is about 1083.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.34. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.42 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.23 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.5 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Elanco Animal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Elanco Animal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Elanco Animal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Elanco Animal's future price movements. Getting to know how Elanco Animal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Elanco Animal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Elanco Animal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Elanco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Elanco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Elanco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Elanco Animal Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Elanco Animal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Elanco Animal Health, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Elanco Animal based on analysis of Elanco Animal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Elanco Animal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Elanco Animal's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 78.75 | 82.78 | 83.46 | 71.03 | PTB Ratio | 1.83 | 0.82 | 1.18 | 1.76 |
Story Coverage note for Elanco Animal
The number of cover stories for Elanco Animal depends on current market conditions and Elanco Animal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Elanco Animal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Elanco Animal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Elanco Animal Short Properties
Elanco Animal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Elanco Animal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Elanco Animal Health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Elanco Animal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elanco Animal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 492.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 352 M |
Check out Elanco Animal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Elanco Animal Health information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Elanco Animal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Elanco Stock analysis
When running Elanco Animal's price analysis, check to measure Elanco Animal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elanco Animal is operating at the current time. Most of Elanco Animal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elanco Animal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elanco Animal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elanco Animal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Elanco Animal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Elanco Animal. If investors know Elanco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Elanco Animal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.097 | Earnings Share (2.50) | Revenue Per Share 8.972 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.051 | Return On Assets 0.0139 |
The market value of Elanco Animal Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Elanco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Elanco Animal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Elanco Animal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Elanco Animal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Elanco Animal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Elanco Animal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Elanco Animal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Elanco Animal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.