Enova International Stock Price Prediction

ENVA Stock  USD 64.32  3.09  5.05%   
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Enova International's share price is approaching 47 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Enova International, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

47

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Enova International stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Enova International shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Enova International's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Enova International and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Enova International's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Enova International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Enova International's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.051
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.32
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.13
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.64
Wall Street Target Price
69.17
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Enova International based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Enova stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Enova International over a specific investment horizon. Using Enova International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Enova International from the perspective of Enova International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Enova International using Enova International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Enova using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Enova International's stock price.

Enova International Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Enova International's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Enova. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Enova International stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Enova International may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Enova International and may potentially protect profits, hedge Enova International with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
52.9999
Short Percent
0.0566
Short Ratio
4.77
Shares Short Prior Month
1.2 M
50 Day MA
61.2066

Enova International Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Enova International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Enova. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Enova can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Enova International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Enova International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Enova International.

Enova International Implied Volatility

    
  51.94  
Enova International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Enova International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Enova International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Enova International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Enova International's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Enova International. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Enova International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Enova because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Enova International after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 64.32  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Enova contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Enova International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.25% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Enova International trading at USD 64.32, that is roughly USD 2.09 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Enova International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Enova International options at the current volatility level of 51.94%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Enova International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Enova Stock refer to our How to Trade Enova Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Enova International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
59.7861.7370.75
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
59.9861.9363.88
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
59.7065.6072.82
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.671.721.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Enova International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Enova International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Enova International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Enova International.

Enova International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Enova International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Enova International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Enova International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Enova International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Enova International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Enova International's historical news coverage. Enova International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 62.37 and 66.27, respectively. We have considered Enova International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
64.32
64.32
After-hype Price
66.27
Upside
Enova International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Enova International is based on 3 months time horizon.

Enova International Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Enova International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Enova International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Enova International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.20 
1.95
  0.42 
  0.03 
11 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
64.32
64.32
0.00 
92.42  
Notes

Enova International Hype Timeline

Enova International is currently traded for 64.32. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Enova is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 92.42%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Enova International is about 1373.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 64.29. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.32. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Enova International recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.49. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Enova International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Enova Stock refer to our How to Trade Enova Stock guide.

Enova International Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Enova International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Enova International's future price movements. Getting to know how Enova International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Enova International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Enova International Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Enova price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Enova using various technical indicators. When you analyze Enova charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Enova International Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Enova International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Enova International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Enova International based on analysis of Enova International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Enova International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Enova International's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.01040.0034210.01320.0125
Price To Sales Ratio1.230.710.80.76

Story Coverage note for Enova International

The number of cover stories for Enova International depends on current market conditions and Enova International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Enova International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Enova International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Enova International Short Properties

Enova International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Enova International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Enova International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Enova International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Enova International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding31.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments377.4 M
When determining whether Enova International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Enova International's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Enova International Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Enova International Stock:
Check out Enova International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Enova Stock refer to our How to Trade Enova Stock guide.
You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

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Is Enova International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Enova International. If investors know Enova will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Enova International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.051
Earnings Share
5.49
Revenue Per Share
35.897
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.155
Return On Assets
0.0407
The market value of Enova International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Enova that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Enova International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Enova International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Enova International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Enova International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Enova International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Enova International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Enova International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.