Empire State Realty Stock Price Prediction
| ESRT Stock | USD 9.05 0.13 1.46% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Empire State Realty stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Empire State shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Empire State's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Empire State and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Empire State's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Empire State Realty, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Empire State's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.08 | Wall Street Target Price 9.9 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.064 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Empire State based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Empire stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Empire State over a specific investment horizon. Using Empire State hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Empire State Realty from the perspective of Empire State response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Empire State using Empire State's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Empire using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Empire State's stock price.
Empire State Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Empire State's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Empire. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Empire State stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Empire State may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Empire State and may potentially protect profits, hedge Empire State with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.974 | Short Percent 0.0685 | Short Ratio 7.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.8 M | 50 Day MA 9.7364 |
Empire State Realty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Empire State's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Empire. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Empire can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Empire State Realty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Empire State's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Empire State.
Empire State Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Empire State's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Empire State Realty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Empire State's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Empire State stock will not fluctuate a lot when Empire State's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Empire State. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Empire State to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Empire because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Empire State after-hype prediction price | USD 8.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Empire |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Empire State's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Empire State After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Empire State at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Empire State or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Empire State, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Empire State Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Empire State's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Empire State's historical news coverage. Empire State's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.01 and 10.97, respectively. We have considered Empire State's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Empire State is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Empire State Realty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Empire State Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Empire State is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Empire State backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Empire State, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.98 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.05 | 8.99 | 0.66 |
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Empire State Hype Timeline
Empire State Realty is currently traded for 9.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Empire is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.99. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.66%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Empire State is about 1010.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.02. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.53. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Empire State Realty has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 130.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Empire State Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Empire State Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Empire State's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Empire State's future price movements. Getting to know how Empire State's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Empire State may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PGRE | Paramount Group | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.06 | (3.83) | 13.73 | |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties | (0.20) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.63 | (6.34) | 21.13 | |
| EQC | Equity Commonwealth | 0.17 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.24 | (1.49) | 3.32 | |
| DEI | Douglas Emmett | (1.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.88 | (4.30) | 13.58 | |
| UE | Urban Edge Properties | 0.1 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.08 | (1.85) | 8.88 |
Empire State Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Empire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Empire using various technical indicators. When you analyze Empire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Empire State Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Empire State stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Empire State Realty, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Empire State based on analysis of Empire State hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Empire State's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Empire State's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0145 | 0.0246 | 0.0172 | 0.0164 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.46 | 1.53 | 2.11 | 3.98 |
Story Coverage note for Empire State
The number of cover stories for Empire State depends on current market conditions and Empire State's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Empire State is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Empire State's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Empire State Short Properties
Empire State's future price predictability will typically decrease when Empire State's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Empire State Realty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Empire State's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Empire State's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 265.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 407 M |
Check out Empire State Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for Empire Stock analysis
When running Empire State's price analysis, check to measure Empire State's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Empire State is operating at the current time. Most of Empire State's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Empire State's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Empire State's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Empire State to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Empire State's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Empire State. If investors know Empire will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Empire State listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 0.14 | Earnings Share 0.3 | Revenue Per Share 4.59 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.064 |
The market value of Empire State Realty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Empire that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Empire State's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Empire State's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Empire State's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Empire State's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Empire State's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Empire State is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Empire State's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.