Fossil Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

FOSL -- USA Stock  

USD 10.40  0.15  1.42%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fossil Group which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Fossil hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Fossil Group from the prospective of Fossil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Fossil over a specific investment horizon. Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Fossil After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Fossil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

August 26, 2019
10.40
Current Value
10.65
After-hype Price
20.91
Upside
Fossil is moderately volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fossil Group is based on 2 months time horizon.

Fossil Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.18% 3.42% 0.25%  0.08% 8 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.4010.652.40%
244.29% 

Fossil Hype Timeline

Fossil Group is currently traded for10.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.25 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Fossil Group is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 10.65. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 244.29%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 2.4% where as daily expected return is currently at -0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Fossil is about 735.48% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 10.48. The company currently holds 603.55M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 111.8 indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Fossil Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Foot Locker(1.27) 7 per month 0.00 (0.09)  3.45 (4.19)  8.79 
Caleres(0.24) 9 per month 0.00 (0.11)  4.78 (5.56)  16.23 
Forward Industries 0.02 9 per month 0.00 (0.0129)  4.63 (4.23)  15.51 
Fossil Group 1.40 8 per month 0.00 (0.0003)  4.99 (6.38)  13.45 
Nike 2.15 7 per month 0.00  0.0271  2.12 (2.75)  5.70 
Crocs(0.47) 10 per month 1.55  0.24  3.78 (2.08)  9.04 
Deckers Outdoor Corporation 2.83 6 per month 0.00 (0.17)  2.40 (4.24)  13.35 
SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Ta 0.00 0 per month 0.08  0.61  0.27 (0.28)  0.57 
Tuniu Corporation 0.09 4 per month 3.28  0.09  4.64 (5.30)  11.67 
Nuance Communications 0.14 9 per month 1.19  0.15  2.14 (2.33)  11.61 

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Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Equity Search module to search for activelly-traded equities including funds and etfs from over 30 global markets.
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