Golub Capital Bdc Stock Volatility

GBDC Stock  USD 15.83  0.14  0.88%   
We consider Golub Capital very steady. Golub Capital BDC holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.18, which attests that the entity had 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards determining the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Golub Capital BDC, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please check out Golub Capital's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2824, risk adjusted performance of 0.1193, and Downside Deviation of 0.8546 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. Key indicators related to Golub Capital's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk
Chance Of Distress
30 Days Economic Sensitivity
Golub Capital Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Golub daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Golub's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Golub Capital volatility.
  
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Golub Capital can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Golub Capital at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Golub stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Golub Capital's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with Golub Stock

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Moving against Golub Stock

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Golub Capital Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Golub Capital's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Golub stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Golub stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Golub Capital's beta of 0.5 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Golub Capital stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Golub Capital BDC has low volatility with Treynor Ratio of 0.27, Maximum Drawdown of 3.16 and kurtosis of -0.07. However, we advice all investors to further analyze Golub Capital BDC to make certain all market information is desiminated and is consistent with the current expectations about Golub Capital upside potential. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Golub Capital's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Golub Capital's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Golub Capital BDC Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Golub Capital correlation with market (NYSE Composite)

Golub Beta

    
  0.5  
Golub standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  0.81  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Golub Capital's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Golub Capital's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in golub stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Golub Capital.

Using Golub Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on Golub Capital grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Golub Capital at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Golub Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Golub Capital's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Golub Capital will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

Golub Capital's PUT expiring on 2024-04-19

   Profit   
       Golub Capital Price At Expiration  

Golub Capital BDC Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Golub Capital stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Golub Capital's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Golub Capital's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Golub Capital's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Golub Capital's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Golub Capital's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Golub Capital's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Golub Capital's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Golub Capital BDC Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.

Golub Capital Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Golub Capital has a beta of 0.4975 . This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Golub Capital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Golub Capital BDC will be expected to be much smaller as well.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Golub Capital or Capital Markets sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Golub Capital's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Golub stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.069, implying that it can generate a 0.069 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
Golub Capital's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how golub stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Golub Capital Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Golub Capital Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Golub Capital or Capital Markets sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Golub Capital's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Golub stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Golub Capital is 559.74. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 0.65 and standard deviation of 0.81. The mean deviation of Golub Capital BDC is currently at 0.64. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.63
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.50
σ
Overall volatility
0.81
Ir
Information ratio 0

Golub Capital Stock Return Volatility

Golub Capital historical daily return volatility represents how much of Golub Capital stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 0.805% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.5638% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance 
       Timeline  

About Golub Capital Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Golub Capital or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Golub Capital may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Golub's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Golub Capital and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Golub Capital fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2024
Selling And Marketing Expenses400.2 K221.7 K
Golub Capital's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Golub Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Golub Capital's price varies over time.

3 ways to utilize Golub Capital's volatility to invest better

Higher Golub Capital's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Golub Capital BDC stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Golub Capital BDC stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:
  • Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Golub Capital BDC investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
  • Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Golub Capital's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
  • Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Golub Capital's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Remember it's essential to remember that stock volatility is just one of many factors to consider when making investment decisions, and it should be used in conjunction with other fundamental and technical analysis tools.

Golub Capital Investment Opportunity

Golub Capital BDC has a volatility of 0.81 and is 1.45 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Golub Capital. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Golub Capital BDC is lower than 7 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Golub Capital BDC to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences a moderate downward daily trend and can be a good diversifier. Check odds of Golub Capital to be traded at $15.51 in 90 days.

Very weak diversification

The correlation between Golub Capital BDC and NYA is 0.4 (i.e., Very weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Golub Capital BDC and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Golub Capital Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Golub Capital's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Golub Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Golub Capital stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Golub Capital Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Golub Capital as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Golub Capital's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Golub Capital's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Golub Capital BDC.
When determining whether Golub Capital BDC offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Golub Capital's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Golub Capital Bdc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Golub Capital Bdc Stock:
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Golub Capital BDC. Also, note that the market value of any Company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.
Note that the Golub Capital BDC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Golub Capital's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

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When running Golub Capital's price analysis, check to measure Golub Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golub Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Golub Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golub Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golub Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golub Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Golub Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Golub Capital. If investors know Golub will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Golub Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.984
Dividend Share
1.4
Earnings Share
1.82
Revenue Per Share
3.711
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.204
The market value of Golub Capital BDC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Golub that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Golub Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Golub Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Golub Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Golub Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Golub Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golub Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golub Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.