Graphic Packaging Holding Stock Price Prediction

GPK Stock  USD 29.09  0.19  0.66%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Graphic Packaging's share price is above 70 as of now. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Graphic, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

74

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Graphic Packaging Holding stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Graphic Packaging shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Graphic Packaging's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Graphic Packaging and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Graphic Packaging's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Graphic Packaging Holding, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Graphic Packaging's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.26
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.67
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.71
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.92
Wall Street Target Price
30.34
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Graphic Packaging based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Graphic stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Graphic Packaging over a specific investment horizon. Using Graphic Packaging hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graphic Packaging Holding from the perspective of Graphic Packaging response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Graphic Packaging using Graphic Packaging's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Graphic using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Graphic Packaging's stock price.

Graphic Packaging Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Graphic Packaging's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Graphic. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Graphic Packaging stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Graphic Packaging may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Graphic Packaging and may potentially protect profits, hedge Graphic Packaging with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
23.8414
Short Percent
0.0387
Short Ratio
3.86
Shares Short Prior Month
12.6 M
50 Day MA
26.1358

Graphic Packaging Holding Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Graphic Packaging's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Graphic. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Graphic can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Graphic Packaging Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Graphic Packaging's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Graphic Packaging.

Graphic Packaging Implied Volatility

    
  56.04  
Graphic Packaging's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Graphic Packaging Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Graphic Packaging's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Graphic Packaging stock will not fluctuate a lot when Graphic Packaging's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Graphic Packaging. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Graphic Packaging to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Graphic because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Graphic Packaging after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 29.17  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Graphic Packaging Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Graphic Packaging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.3829.9131.44
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
27.5129.0530.58
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
25.7528.3031.41
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.570.630.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Graphic Packaging. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Graphic Packaging's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Graphic Packaging's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Graphic Packaging Holding.

Graphic Packaging After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Graphic Packaging at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Graphic Packaging or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Graphic Packaging, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Graphic Packaging Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Graphic Packaging's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Graphic Packaging's historical news coverage. Graphic Packaging's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.64 and 30.70, respectively. We have considered Graphic Packaging's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
29.09
29.17
After-hype Price
30.70
Upside
Graphic Packaging is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Graphic Packaging Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.

Graphic Packaging Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Graphic Packaging is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graphic Packaging backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Graphic Packaging, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
1.53
  0.09 
  0.12 
10 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
29.09
29.17
0.28 
510.00  
Notes

Graphic Packaging Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Graphic Packaging Holding is traded for 29.09. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Graphic is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 29.17 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Graphic Packaging is about 370.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.97. The company reported the last year's revenue of 9.43 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 723 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.84 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Graphic Packaging Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Graphic Packaging Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Graphic Packaging's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Graphic Packaging's future price movements. Getting to know how Graphic Packaging rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Graphic Packaging may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
IPInternational Paper(0.07)8 per month 1.80 (0.02) 3.04 (2.68) 11.84 
OIO I Glass(0.39)9 per month 2.72 (0.04) 3.72 (3.74) 18.56 
MGIHMillennium Group International(0.31)3 per month 4.96  0.06  8.40 (10.33) 217.42 
OCTOEightco Holdings 0.01 4 per month 4.82  0.11  16.92 (7.55) 54.59 
CCKCrown Holdings(0.43)11 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.08 (2.41) 14.73 
GEFGreif Bros(1.12)8 per month 1.09 (0.04) 2.31 (1.73) 7.47 
KRTKarat Packaging(0.68)9 per month 2.39  0.07  4.32 (2.90) 17.36 
MYEMyers Industries(0.31)9 per month 1.22  0.07  2.92 (2.36) 7.97 

Graphic Packaging Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Graphic price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graphic using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graphic charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Graphic Packaging Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Graphic Packaging stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Graphic Packaging Holding, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Graphic Packaging based on analysis of Graphic Packaging hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Graphic Packaging's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Graphic Packaging's related companies.
 2021 2022 2024 (projected)
Price To Sales Ratio0.810.730.42
Price Earnings Ratio28.413.1413.88

Story Coverage note for Graphic Packaging

The number of cover stories for Graphic Packaging depends on current market conditions and Graphic Packaging's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Graphic Packaging is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Graphic Packaging's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Graphic Packaging Short Properties

Graphic Packaging's future price predictability will typically decrease when Graphic Packaging's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Graphic Packaging Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Graphic Packaging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graphic Packaging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding306.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments162 M
When determining whether Graphic Packaging Holding is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Graphic Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock:
Check out Graphic Packaging Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Graphic Stock analysis

When running Graphic Packaging's price analysis, check to measure Graphic Packaging's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Graphic Packaging is operating at the current time. Most of Graphic Packaging's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Graphic Packaging's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Graphic Packaging's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Graphic Packaging to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Graphic Packaging's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graphic Packaging. If investors know Graphic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graphic Packaging listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.26
Dividend Share
0.4
Earnings Share
2.34
Revenue Per Share
30.591
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of Graphic Packaging Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graphic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graphic Packaging's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graphic Packaging's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graphic Packaging's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graphic Packaging's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graphic Packaging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graphic Packaging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graphic Packaging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.