Hci Group Stock Price Prediction
| HCI Stock | USD 113.63 1.16 1.01% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
HCI Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of HCI shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of HCI's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of HCI and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from HCI's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with HCI Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting HCI's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.123 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.35 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.02 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.72 | Wall Street Target Price 128.5 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of HCI based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The HCI stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on HCI over a specific investment horizon. Using HCI hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HCI Group from the perspective of HCI response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in HCI. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in HCI to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying HCI because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
HCI after-hype prediction price | USD 113.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
HCI |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HCI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HCI After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of HCI at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HCI or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HCI, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HCI Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting HCI's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HCI's historical news coverage. HCI's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 111.10 and 115.70, respectively. We have considered HCI's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
HCI is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HCI Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
HCI Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HCI is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HCI backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HCI, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 2.30 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 12 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
113.63 | 113.40 | 0.20 |
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HCI Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April HCI Group is traded for 113.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. HCI is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 113.4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on HCI is about 1586.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 113.68. About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of HCI was currently reported as 43.12. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.7. HCI Group recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.62. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of February 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out HCI Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.HCI Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HCI's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HCI's future price movements. Getting to know how HCI's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HCI may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HCI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HCI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HCI using various technical indicators. When you analyze HCI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About HCI Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of HCI stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as HCI Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of HCI based on analysis of HCI hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to HCI's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to HCI's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0208 | 0.0436 | 0.0188 | 0.0261 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.66 | 0.7 | 1.33 | 1.06 |
Story Coverage note for HCI
The number of cover stories for HCI depends on current market conditions and HCI's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HCI is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HCI's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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HCI Short Properties
HCI's future price predictability will typically decrease when HCI's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of HCI Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential HCI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HCI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 770.5 M |
Check out HCI Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the HCI Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other HCI's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Complementary Tools for HCI Stock analysis
When running HCI's price analysis, check to measure HCI's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy HCI is operating at the current time. Most of HCI's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of HCI's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move HCI's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of HCI to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is HCI's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HCI. If investors know HCI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HCI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.123 | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 7.62 | Revenue Per Share 65.815 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.48 |
The market value of HCI Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HCI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HCI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HCI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HCI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HCI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HCI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HCI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HCI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.