Hilton Worldwide Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

HLT -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hilton Worldwide Holdings which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Hilton Worldwide hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings from the prospective of Hilton Worldwide response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Hilton Worldwide over a specific investment horizon. Please also check Hilton Worldwide Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Hilton Worldwide After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Hilton Worldwide Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Current Value
105.47
December 11, 2019
101.58
Downside
105.63
After-hype Price
109.68
Upside
Hilton Worldwide is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hilton Worldwide Hol is based on 3 months time horizon.

Hilton Worldwide Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.17  1.35  0.16   0.03  10 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
105.47105.630.15 
142.11  

Hilton Worldwide Hype Timeline

On the 11th of December 2019 Hilton Worldwide Hol is traded for 105.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Hilton Worldwide Holdings is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 105.63. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 142.11%. The price escalation on the next news is projected to be 0.15% where as daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Hilton Worldwide is about 658.54% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 105.5. The company reported last year revenue of 3.76 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 930 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.34 B. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days.
Please also check Hilton Worldwide Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Hilton Worldwide Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Hyatt Hotels Corporation 1.01 10 per month 1.02  0.0421  2.15 (1.84)  4.37 
Choice Hotels International In 0.28 9 per month 0.93  0.0208  1.51 (1.62)  4.27 
GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd(0.21) 5 per month 1.37  0.07  5.15 (2.87)  10.52 
Hilton Worldwide Holdings 0.95 10 per month 0.93  0.10  2.16 (2.03)  6.84 
Intercontinental Hotels Group 0.53 10 per month 1.55 (0.0267)  1.87 (2.97)  6.43 
Marriott International(1.15) 6 per month 1.08  0.05  2.46 (2.04)  5.47 
Huazhu Group Limited(0.94) 10 per month 0.00 (0.06)  4.67 (3.08)  10.30 
The Intergroup Corporation 1.55 8 per month 0.81  0.11  2.79 (1.51)  21.54 
Intel Corporation(0.13) 11 per month 0.95  0.06  1.96 (1.77)  10.86 
Wells Fargo Company 0.16 8 per month 0.86  0.1  1.51 (1.72)  6.50 

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