Intercontinental Hotels Group Stock Price Prediction

IHG Stock  USD 104.24  0.41  0.39%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of InterContinental's stock price is roughly 61. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 19th of March 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling a stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

61

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
InterContinental Hotels stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of InterContinental shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of InterContinental's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of InterContinental and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from InterContinental's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with InterContinental Hotels Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting InterContinental's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.976
Wall Street Target Price
95.72
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.14)
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of InterContinental based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The InterContinental stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on InterContinental over a specific investment horizon. Using InterContinental hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of InterContinental Hotels Group from the perspective of InterContinental response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in InterContinental. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in InterContinental to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying InterContinental because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

InterContinental after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 104.66  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out InterContinental Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of InterContinental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of InterContinental in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
98.60100.14115.12
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
98.74100.28101.81
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
75.7383.2292.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
103.37107.46111.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as InterContinental. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against InterContinental's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, InterContinental's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in InterContinental Hotels.

InterContinental After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of InterContinental at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in InterContinental or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of InterContinental, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

InterContinental Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting InterContinental's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on InterContinental's historical news coverage. InterContinental's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 103.12 and 106.20, respectively. We have considered InterContinental's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
104.24
103.12
Downside
104.66
After-hype Price
106.20
Upside
InterContinental is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of InterContinental Hotels is based on 3 months time horizon.

InterContinental Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as InterContinental is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading InterContinental backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with InterContinental, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.26 
1.54
  0.15 
  0.23 
8 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
104.24
104.66
0.01 
270.18  
Notes

InterContinental Hype Timeline

On the 19th of March InterContinental Hotels is traded for 104.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.23. InterContinental is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 104.66 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.01% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on InterContinental is about 176.79% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 104.47. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.62 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 750 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.5 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out InterContinental Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

InterContinental Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to InterContinental's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict InterContinental's future price movements. Getting to know how InterContinental rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how InterContinental may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AGSPlayAGS(0.15)8 per month 2.12  0.02  5.61 (4.05) 15.06 
MCDMcDonalds 2.67 8 per month 0.00 (0.19) 1.55 (1.66) 5.99 
QSRRestaurant Brands International 0.97 10 per month 1.38  0.01  2.26 (2.38) 6.89 
HDHome Depot 2.96 7 per month 0.71  0.04  2.02 (1.58) 5.22 
LILi AutoInc(0.11)9 per month 4.20 (0.02) 8.91 (5.90) 32.44 
ABGAsbury Automotive Group(1.53)9 per month 2.17 (0.07) 3.18 (4.02) 12.04 
ADTADT Inc(0.04)9 per month 3.47 (0.02) 3.44 (5.19) 20.29 
EDUNew Oriental Education 0.75 7 per month 2.85  0.02  5.79 (4.67) 11.47 
TSLATesla Inc 2.32 9 per month 0.00 (0.19) 4.19 (4.12) 17.04 

InterContinental Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine InterContinental price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for InterContinental using various technical indicators. When you analyze InterContinental charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About InterContinental Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of InterContinental stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as InterContinental Hotels Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of InterContinental based on analysis of InterContinental hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to InterContinental's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to InterContinental's related companies.
 2020 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02190.01580.015
Price To Sales Ratio4.953.352.7

Story Coverage note for InterContinental

The number of cover stories for InterContinental depends on current market conditions and InterContinental's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that InterContinental is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about InterContinental's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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InterContinental Short Properties

InterContinental's future price predictability will typically decrease when InterContinental's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of InterContinental Hotels Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential InterContinental's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. InterContinental's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding170 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.3 B
When determining whether InterContinental Hotels is a strong investment it is important to analyze InterContinental's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact InterContinental's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding InterContinental Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out InterContinental Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the InterContinental Hotels information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other InterContinental's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

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When running InterContinental's price analysis, check to measure InterContinental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy InterContinental is operating at the current time. Most of InterContinental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of InterContinental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move InterContinental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of InterContinental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is InterContinental's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of InterContinental. If investors know InterContinental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about InterContinental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.976
Dividend Share
1.523
Earnings Share
4.42
Revenue Per Share
2.1384
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.14)
The market value of InterContinental Hotels is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of InterContinental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of InterContinental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is InterContinental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because InterContinental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect InterContinental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between InterContinental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if InterContinental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, InterContinental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.