Illumina Stock Price Prediction
| ILMN Stock | USD 118.29 0.60 0.51% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
37
Oversold | Overbought |
Illumina stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Illumina shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Illumina's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Illumina and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Illumina's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Illumina, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Illumina's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.07 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.89 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.44 | Wall Street Target Price 154.62 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Illumina based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Illumina stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Illumina over a specific investment horizon. Using Illumina hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Illumina from the perspective of Illumina response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Illumina using Illumina's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Illumina using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Illumina's stock price.
Illumina Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Illumina's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Illumina. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Illumina stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Illumina may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Illumina and may potentially protect profits, hedge Illumina with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 141.2347 | Short Percent 0.0375 | Short Ratio 3.36 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.2 M | 50 Day MA 134.9354 |
Illumina Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Illumina's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Illumina. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Illumina can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Illumina. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Illumina's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Illumina.
Illumina Implied Volatility | 206.61 |
Illumina's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Illumina stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Illumina's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Illumina stock will not fluctuate a lot when Illumina's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Illumina. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Illumina to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Illumina because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Illumina after-hype prediction price | USD 118.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Illumina contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Illumina will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 12.91% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Illumina trading at USD 118.29, that is roughly USD 15.27 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Illumina's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Illumina options at the current volatility level of 206.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Illumina |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Illumina's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Illumina After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Illumina at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Illumina or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Illumina, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Illumina Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Illumina's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Illumina's historical news coverage. Illumina's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 116.43 and 121.01, respectively. We have considered Illumina's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Illumina is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Illumina is based on 3 months time horizon.
Illumina Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Illumina is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Illumina backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Illumina, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.29 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 9 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
118.29 | 118.72 | 0.36 |
|
Illumina Hype Timeline
Illumina is currently traded for 118.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.33. Illumina is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 118.72 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 101.33%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.36%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Illumina is about 130.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 117.96. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.5 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.16 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.15 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Illumina Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Illumina Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Illumina's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Illumina's future price movements. Getting to know how Illumina's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Illumina may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DHR | Danaher | 0.94 | 13 per month | 1.05 | 0.04 | 2.27 | (1.66) | 7.45 | |
| IDXX | IDEXX Laboratories | (8.96) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.90 | (2.33) | 11.55 | |
| GH | Guardant Health | (0.35) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.82 | (7.29) | 22.73 | |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories | 1.36 | 12 per month | 1.62 | 0.04 | 2.87 | (2.57) | 15.05 |
Illumina Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Illumina price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Illumina using various technical indicators. When you analyze Illumina charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Illumina Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Illumina stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Illumina, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Illumina based on analysis of Illumina hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Illumina's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Illumina's related companies. | 2017 | 2018 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.57E-4 | 0.0295 | 1.49E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 11.59 | 6.93 | 4.64 |
Story Coverage note for Illumina
The number of cover stories for Illumina depends on current market conditions and Illumina's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Illumina is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Illumina's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Illumina Short Properties
Illumina's future price predictability will typically decrease when Illumina's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Illumina often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Illumina's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Illumina's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 158 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Illumina Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Illumina Stock, please use our How to Invest in Illumina guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Complementary Tools for Illumina Stock analysis
When running Illumina's price analysis, check to measure Illumina's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Illumina is operating at the current time. Most of Illumina's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Illumina's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Illumina's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Illumina to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets | |
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges |
Is Illumina's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Illumina. If investors know Illumina will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Illumina listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | Earnings Share (7.34) | Revenue Per Share 28.506 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.036 | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Illumina is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Illumina that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Illumina's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Illumina's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Illumina's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Illumina's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Illumina's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Illumina is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Illumina's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.