Imperial Oil Stock Price Prediction
| IMO Stock | USD 70.63 0.12 0.17% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
79
Oversold | Overbought |
Imperial Oil stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Imperial Oil shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Imperial Oil's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Imperial Oil and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Imperial Oil's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Imperial Oil, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Imperial Oil's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.87 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.09 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.29 | Wall Street Target Price 71.8 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Imperial Oil based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Imperial stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Imperial Oil over a specific investment horizon. Using Imperial Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Imperial Oil from the perspective of Imperial Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Imperial Oil using Imperial Oil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Imperial using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Imperial Oil's stock price.
Imperial Oil Implied Volatility | 32.97 |
Imperial Oil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Imperial Oil stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Imperial Oil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Imperial Oil stock will not fluctuate a lot when Imperial Oil's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Imperial Oil. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Imperial Oil to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Imperial because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Imperial Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 70.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Imperial contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Imperial Oil will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.06% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Imperial Oil trading at USD 70.63, that is roughly USD 1.46 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Imperial Oil's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Imperial Oil options at the current volatility level of 32.97%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Imperial |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Imperial Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Imperial Oil After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Imperial Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Imperial Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Imperial Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Imperial Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Imperial Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Imperial Oil's historical news coverage. Imperial Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 68.77 and 71.63, respectively. We have considered Imperial Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Imperial Oil is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Imperial Oil is based on 3 months time horizon.
Imperial Oil Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Imperial Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Imperial Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Imperial Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 1.43 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 10 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
70.63 | 70.20 | 0.43 |
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Imperial Oil Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April Imperial Oil is traded for 70.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Imperial is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 70.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 166.28%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.43%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Imperial Oil is about 510.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 70.53. About 70.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Imperial Oil was currently reported as 41.47. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.85. Imperial Oil recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.18. The entity last dividend was issued on the 1st of March 2024. The firm had 3:1 split on the 30th of May 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Imperial Oil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Imperial Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Imperial Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Imperial Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Imperial Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Imperial Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SU | Suncor Energy | 0.52 | 12 per month | 0.87 | 0.19 | 2.45 | (2.00) | 7.42 | |
| EC | Ecopetrol SA ADR | (0.74) | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.01 | 2.49 | (2.56) | 7.91 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | 0.18 | 9 per month | 2.35 | 0.02 | 2.85 | (2.01) | 16.41 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | 0.16 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.87 | (2.65) | 9.62 | |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy | (0.76) | 11 per month | 0.83 | 0.30 | 2.67 | (1.87) | 10.68 | |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp | (0.87) | 9 per month | 0.45 | 0.26 | 1.96 | (1.17) | 4.66 | |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | (1.02) | 9 per month | 0.74 | 0.12 | 1.99 | (1.79) | 5.97 | |
| BP | BP PLC ADR | 0.07 | 11 per month | 0.60 | 0.13 | 1.83 | (1.30) | 8.10 | |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE ADR | 0.29 | 12 per month | 0.90 | 0.11 | 1.81 | (1.65) | 4.92 | |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas | 0.10 | 8 per month | 1.00 | 0.07 | 2.50 | (2.08) | 9.58 | |
| TGS | Transportadora de Gas | (0.69) | 9 per month | 2.64 | 0.05 | 6.52 | (5.21) | 21.78 | |
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | (0.40) | 10 per month | 0.27 | 0.23 | 1.68 | (1.21) | 3.93 | |
| E | Eni SpA ADR | (0.76) | 10 per month | 1.15 | 0.02 | 1.74 | (1.62) | 5.48 | |
| GLPEY | Galp Energa | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.79 | 0.12 | 2.75 | (2.17) | 6.19 |
Imperial Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Imperial price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Imperial using various technical indicators. When you analyze Imperial charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Imperial Oil Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Imperial Oil stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Imperial Oil, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Imperial Oil based on analysis of Imperial Oil hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Imperial Oil's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Imperial Oil's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0201 | 0.0253 | 0.0248 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.92 |
Story Coverage note for Imperial Oil
The number of cover stories for Imperial Oil depends on current market conditions and Imperial Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Imperial Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Imperial Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Imperial Oil Short Properties
Imperial Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Imperial Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Imperial Oil often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Imperial Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Imperial Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 575.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 864 M |
Check out Imperial Oil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Imperial Stock, please use our How to Invest in Imperial Oil guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Complementary Tools for Imperial Stock analysis
When running Imperial Oil's price analysis, check to measure Imperial Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Imperial Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Imperial Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Imperial Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Imperial Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Imperial Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Imperial Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Imperial Oil. If investors know Imperial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Imperial Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Dividend Share 1.94 | Earnings Share 6.18 | Revenue Per Share 88.208 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.1) |
The market value of Imperial Oil is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Imperial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Imperial Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Imperial Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Imperial Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Imperial Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Imperial Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Imperial Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Imperial Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.