Kla Tencor Stock Price Prediction
| KLAC Stock | USD 644.22 14.76 2.24% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
KLA Tencor stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of KLA Tencor shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of KLA Tencor's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of KLA Tencor and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from KLA Tencor's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with KLA Tencor, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting KLA Tencor's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.85 | EPS Estimate Current Year 22.79 | EPS Estimate Next Year 27.71 | Wall Street Target Price 708.79 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of KLA Tencor based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The KLA stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on KLA Tencor over a specific investment horizon. Using KLA Tencor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of KLA Tencor from the perspective of KLA Tencor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards KLA Tencor using KLA Tencor's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards KLA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of KLA Tencor's stock price.
KLA Tencor Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in KLA Tencor's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards KLA. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of KLA Tencor stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long KLA Tencor may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about KLA Tencor and may potentially protect profits, hedge KLA Tencor with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 556.4221 | Short Percent 0.0146 | Short Ratio 2.1 | Shares Short Prior Month 2 M | 50 Day MA 681.9768 |
KLA Tencor Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to KLA Tencor's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in KLA. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding KLA can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around KLA Tencor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of KLA Tencor's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about KLA Tencor.
KLA Tencor Implied Volatility | 63.45 |
KLA Tencor's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of KLA Tencor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if KLA Tencor's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that KLA Tencor stock will not fluctuate a lot when KLA Tencor's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in KLA Tencor. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in KLA Tencor to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying KLA because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
KLA Tencor after-hype prediction price | USD 644.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current KLA contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that KLA Tencor will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.97% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With KLA Tencor trading at USD 644.22, that is roughly USD 25.55 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating KLA Tencor's daily price movement you should consider acquiring KLA Tencor options at the current volatility level of 63.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
KLA |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KLA Tencor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KLA Tencor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of KLA Tencor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in KLA Tencor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of KLA Tencor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
KLA Tencor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting KLA Tencor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on KLA Tencor's historical news coverage. KLA Tencor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 642.19 and 646.53, respectively. We have considered KLA Tencor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
KLA Tencor is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of KLA Tencor is based on 3 months time horizon.
KLA Tencor Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as KLA Tencor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading KLA Tencor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with KLA Tencor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.17 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
644.22 | 644.36 | 0.02 |
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KLA Tencor Hype Timeline
KLA Tencor is now traded for 644.22. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. KLA is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 644.36 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 127.65%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on KLA Tencor is about 575.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 644.25. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 10.5 B. Net Income was 684.65 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.62 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out KLA Tencor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.KLA Tencor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to KLA Tencor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict KLA Tencor's future price movements. Getting to know how KLA Tencor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how KLA Tencor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMAT | Applied Materials | 0.36 | 11 per month | 1.83 | 0.13 | 4.74 | (3.32) | 12.10 | |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 11.80 | 9 per month | 2.10 | 0.13 | 4.33 | (3.06) | 15.95 | |
| ACLS | Axcelis Technologies | (1.81) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.43 | (3.75) | 11.78 | |
| TER | Teradyne | (1.04) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.23 | (3.89) | 10.71 | |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | (6.97) | 12 per month | 1.84 | 0.09 | 4.61 | (2.76) | 10.75 | |
| ENTG | Entegris | 0.73 | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.06 | 3.95 | (3.49) | 10.18 | |
| IPGP | IPG Photonics | 1.37 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.19 | (2.82) | 18.60 | |
| AEHR | Aehr Test Systems | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 8.54 | (5.85) | 32.78 | |
| PLAB | Photronics | 0.28 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.97 | (3.66) | 20.15 | |
| KLIC | Kulicke and Soffa | (1.08) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.58 | (3.67) | 13.29 |
KLA Tencor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine KLA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for KLA using various technical indicators. When you analyze KLA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About KLA Tencor Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of KLA Tencor stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as KLA Tencor, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of KLA Tencor based on analysis of KLA Tencor hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to KLA Tencor's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to KLA Tencor's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0133 | 0.0108 | 0.009745 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.21 | 6.45 | 5.8 |
Story Coverage note for KLA Tencor
The number of cover stories for KLA Tencor depends on current market conditions and KLA Tencor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that KLA Tencor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about KLA Tencor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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KLA Tencor Short Properties
KLA Tencor's future price predictability will typically decrease when KLA Tencor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of KLA Tencor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential KLA Tencor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. KLA Tencor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 140.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.2 B |
Check out KLA Tencor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade KLA Stock refer to our How to Trade KLA Stock guide.Note that the KLA Tencor information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other KLA Tencor's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Complementary Tools for KLA Stock analysis
When running KLA Tencor's price analysis, check to measure KLA Tencor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KLA Tencor is operating at the current time. Most of KLA Tencor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KLA Tencor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KLA Tencor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KLA Tencor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is KLA Tencor's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of KLA Tencor. If investors know KLA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about KLA Tencor listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | Dividend Share 5.35 | Earnings Share 19.77 | Revenue Per Share 70.755 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of KLA Tencor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of KLA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of KLA Tencor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is KLA Tencor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because KLA Tencor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect KLA Tencor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between KLA Tencor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if KLA Tencor is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, KLA Tencor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.