Kratos Defense Security Stock Price Prediction
| KTOS Stock | USD 17.77 0.07 0.39% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Kratos Defense Security stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Kratos Defense shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Kratos Defense's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Kratos Defense and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Kratos Defense's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Kratos Defense Security, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Kratos Defense's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 25.161 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.08 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.42 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.54 | Wall Street Target Price 22 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Kratos Defense based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Kratos stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Kratos Defense over a specific investment horizon. Using Kratos Defense hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kratos Defense Security from the perspective of Kratos Defense response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kratos Defense using Kratos Defense's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kratos using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kratos Defense's stock price.
Kratos Defense Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Kratos Defense's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Kratos. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Kratos Defense stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Kratos Defense may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Kratos Defense and may potentially protect profits, hedge Kratos Defense with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 17.2841 | Short Percent 0.0157 | Short Ratio 1.92 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.6 M | 50 Day MA 18.2358 |
Kratos Defense Security Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Kratos Defense's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kratos. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kratos can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kratos Defense Security. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Kratos Defense's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Kratos Defense.
Kratos Defense Implied Volatility | 73.72 |
Kratos Defense's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kratos Defense Security stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kratos Defense's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kratos Defense stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kratos Defense's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Kratos Defense. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Kratos Defense to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Kratos because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Kratos Defense after-hype prediction price | USD 17.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kratos contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kratos Defense Security will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.61% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Kratos Defense trading at USD 17.77, that is roughly USD 0.82 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kratos Defense's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kratos Defense Security options at the current volatility level of 73.72%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Kratos |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kratos Defense's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Kratos Defense After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kratos Defense at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kratos Defense or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kratos Defense, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kratos Defense Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kratos Defense's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kratos Defense's historical news coverage. Kratos Defense's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.83 and 20.57, respectively. We have considered Kratos Defense's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kratos Defense is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kratos Defense Security is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kratos Defense Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kratos Defense is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kratos Defense backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kratos Defense, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.87 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.77 | 17.70 | 0.39 |
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Kratos Defense Hype Timeline
Kratos Defense Security is now traded for 17.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Kratos is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 17.7. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.39%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Kratos Defense is about 4900.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.76. About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Kratos Defense was now reported as 7.55. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.07. Kratos Defense Security had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:10 split on the 11th of September 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Kratos Defense Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Kratos Defense Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kratos Defense's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kratos Defense's future price movements. Getting to know how Kratos Defense's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kratos Defense may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | (0.87) | 7 per month | 1.47 | (0.06) | 1.34 | (1.33) | 6.61 | |
| GD | General Dynamics | (0.16) | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1.47 | (0.82) | 6.20 | |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies | 0.95 | 10 per month | 0.88 | (0.06) | 1.67 | (1.51) | 5.06 | |
| BA | The Boeing | (2.92) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.37 | (2.33) | 9.57 | |
| RTX | Raytheon Technologies Corp | 0.59 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1.63 | (0.86) | 6.91 | |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | 2.03 | 10 per month | 0.82 | 0.02 | 1.67 | (1.33) | 7.00 | |
| SPCE | Virgin Galactic Holdings | (0.03) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 7.88 | (9.62) | 26.16 |
Kratos Defense Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kratos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kratos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kratos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Kratos Defense Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Kratos Defense stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Kratos Defense Security, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Kratos Defense based on analysis of Kratos Defense hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Kratos Defense's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Kratos Defense's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001632 | 0.001877 | 0.001783 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.55 | 2.93 | 3.65 |
Story Coverage note for Kratos Defense
The number of cover stories for Kratos Defense depends on current market conditions and Kratos Defense's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kratos Defense is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kratos Defense's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kratos Defense Short Properties
Kratos Defense's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kratos Defense's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kratos Defense Security often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kratos Defense's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kratos Defense's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 130.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 72.8 M |
Check out Kratos Defense Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for Kratos Stock analysis
When running Kratos Defense's price analysis, check to measure Kratos Defense's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kratos Defense is operating at the current time. Most of Kratos Defense's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kratos Defense's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kratos Defense's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kratos Defense to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kratos Defense's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kratos Defense. If investors know Kratos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kratos Defense listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 25.161 | Earnings Share (0.07) | Revenue Per Share 7.953 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.098 | Return On Assets 0.0127 |
The market value of Kratos Defense Security is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kratos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kratos Defense's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kratos Defense's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kratos Defense's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kratos Defense's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kratos Defense's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kratos Defense is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kratos Defense's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.