Lgi Homes Stock Price Prediction
| LGIH Stock | USD 96.56 1.80 1.83% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
37
Oversold | Overbought |
LGI Homes stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of LGI Homes shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of LGI Homes' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of LGI Homes and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from LGI Homes' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with LGI Homes, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting LGI Homes' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.515 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.84 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.32 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.81 | Wall Street Target Price 117.33 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of LGI Homes based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The LGI stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on LGI Homes over a specific investment horizon. Using LGI Homes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LGI Homes from the perspective of LGI Homes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards LGI Homes using LGI Homes' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards LGI using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of LGI Homes' stock price.
LGI Homes Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in LGI Homes' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards LGI. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of LGI Homes stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long LGI Homes may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about LGI Homes and may potentially protect profits, hedge LGI Homes with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 117.1835 | Short Percent 0.1292 | Short Ratio 11.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.3 M | 50 Day MA 112.802 |
LGI Homes Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to LGI Homes' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in LGI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding LGI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around LGI Homes. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of LGI Homes' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about LGI Homes.
LGI Homes Implied Volatility | 67.12 |
LGI Homes' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of LGI Homes stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if LGI Homes' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that LGI Homes stock will not fluctuate a lot when LGI Homes' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in LGI Homes. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in LGI Homes to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying LGI because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
LGI Homes after-hype prediction price | USD 97.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current LGI contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that LGI Homes will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.2% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With LGI Homes trading at USD 96.56, that is roughly USD 4.05 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating LGI Homes' daily price movement you should consider acquiring LGI Homes options at the current volatility level of 67.12%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
LGI |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LGI Homes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LGI Homes After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LGI Homes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LGI Homes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LGI Homes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LGI Homes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LGI Homes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LGI Homes' historical news coverage. LGI Homes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 94.18 and 99.82, respectively. We have considered LGI Homes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LGI Homes is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LGI Homes is based on 3 months time horizon.
LGI Homes Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LGI Homes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LGI Homes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LGI Homes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.80 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
96.56 | 97.00 | 0.46 |
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LGI Homes Hype Timeline
LGI Homes is now traded for 96.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.44, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.25. LGI is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 97.0 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.32%. The volatility of related hype on LGI Homes is about 359.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 96.81. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.36 B. Net Income was 199.23 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 653.47 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out LGI Homes Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.LGI Homes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LGI Homes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LGI Homes' future price movements. Getting to know how LGI Homes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LGI Homes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MHO | MI Homes | (2.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.30 | (5.54) | 10.93 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | (0.68) | 12 per month | 2.12 | 0.03 | 3.48 | (4.37) | 10.17 | |
| TPH | TRI Pointe Homes | 0.01 | 9 per month | 2.07 | (0) | 3.07 | (3.92) | 8.93 | |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | (0.14) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.65 | (5.59) | 14.15 | |
| CCS | Century Communities | 0.91 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.53 | (5.45) | 14.39 | |
| CVCO | Cavco Industries | 5.95 | 9 per month | 2.09 | 0.08 | 3.09 | (3.77) | 9.74 | |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corp | (0.84) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.60 | (3.95) | 18.92 | |
| MTH | Meritage | 2.76 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.44 | (5.23) | 9.80 | |
| KBH | KB Home | 1.05 | 11 per month | 2.26 | (0.02) | 2.68 | (4.67) | 9.13 |
LGI Homes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LGI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LGI using various technical indicators. When you analyze LGI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About LGI Homes Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of LGI Homes stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as LGI Homes, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of LGI Homes based on analysis of LGI Homes hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to LGI Homes's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to LGI Homes's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.18 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.3 |
Story Coverage note for LGI Homes
The number of cover stories for LGI Homes depends on current market conditions and LGI Homes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LGI Homes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LGI Homes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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LGI Homes Short Properties
LGI Homes' future price predictability will typically decrease when LGI Homes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LGI Homes often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LGI Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LGI Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49 M |
Check out LGI Homes Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in LGI Stock please use our How to Invest in LGI Homes guide.You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Complementary Tools for LGI Stock analysis
When running LGI Homes' price analysis, check to measure LGI Homes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LGI Homes is operating at the current time. Most of LGI Homes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LGI Homes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LGI Homes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LGI Homes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is LGI Homes' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LGI Homes. If investors know LGI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LGI Homes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.515 | Earnings Share 8.42 | Revenue Per Share 100.335 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.246 | Return On Assets 0.0459 |
The market value of LGI Homes is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LGI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LGI Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LGI Homes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LGI Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LGI Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LGI Homes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LGI Homes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LGI Homes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.