Marriott International Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

MAR -- USA Stock  

USD 125.10  3.09  2.41%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Marriott International which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Marriott International hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Marriott International from the prospective of Marriott International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Marriott International over a specific investment horizon. Please see also Marriott International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Marriott International After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Marriott International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

August 26, 2019
125.10
Current Value
120.31
Downside
124.84
After-hype Price
129.37
Upside
Marriott International is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marriott International is based on 2 months time horizon.

Marriott International Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.22% 1.51% 0.26%  0.09% 8 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
125.10124.840.21%
126.89% 

Marriott International Hype Timeline

On 26 of August Marriott International is traded for 125.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.26 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Marriott International is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 124.84. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 126.89%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.21% where as daily expected return is now at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Marriott International is about 390.18% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 125.01. About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company last dividend was issued on 2019-08-21. Marriott International had 1061:1000 split on 2011-11-22. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days.
Please see also Marriott International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Marriott International Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Hyatt Hotels Corporation(0.40) 8 per month 0.00  0.0495  1.92 (2.03)  6.62 
Choice Hotels International In 0.48 7 per month 1.19  0.12  1.98 (1.66)  8.57 
GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd(0.29) 4 per month 0.00 (0.1)  2.20 (3.69)  7.37 
Hilton Worldwide Holdings 0.02 7 per month 0.00  0.0334  2.02 (2.65)  5.95 
Intercontinental Hotels Group(0.29) 7 per month 0.00 (0.032)  1.35 (2.58)  5.73 
Marriott International(1.19) 8 per month 0.00 (0.0266)  1.95 (2.41)  7.60 
Huazhu Group Limited(0.22) 8 per month 0.00 (0.0143)  4.08 (4.54)  12.66 
Pfizer(0.25) 5 per month 0.00 (0.29)  1.04 (2.74)  8.01 
Walt Disney Company(1.57) 6 per month 0.00 (0.0264)  1.44 (3.04)  7.52 
Verizon Communications(0.16) 6 per month 0.00  0.0124  1.28 (1.93)  5.15 

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Please see also Marriott International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
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