MercadoLibre (Mexico) Price Prediction

MELIN Stock  MXN 25,713  78.89  0.31%   
At this time the value of rsi of MercadoLibre's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Oversold Vs Overbought

0

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
MercadoLibre stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of MercadoLibre shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of MercadoLibre's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of MercadoLibre and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from MercadoLibre's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with MercadoLibre, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of MercadoLibre based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The MercadoLibre stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on MercadoLibre over a specific investment horizon. Using MercadoLibre hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MercadoLibre from the perspective of MercadoLibre response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in MercadoLibre. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MercadoLibre to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MercadoLibre because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

MercadoLibre after-hype prediction price

    
  MXN 25912.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out MercadoLibre Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock, please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MercadoLibre's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22,78722,78928,503
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
26,37426,37626,378
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
25,41225,93826,464
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MercadoLibre. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MercadoLibre's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MercadoLibre's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in MercadoLibre.

MercadoLibre After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of MercadoLibre at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MercadoLibre or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MercadoLibre, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

MercadoLibre Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting MercadoLibre's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MercadoLibre's historical news coverage. MercadoLibre's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25,910 and 25,914, respectively. We have considered MercadoLibre's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
25,713
25,910
Downside
25,912
After-hype Price
25,914
Upside
MercadoLibre is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MercadoLibre is based on 3 months time horizon.

MercadoLibre Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MercadoLibre is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MercadoLibre backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MercadoLibre, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04 
2.30
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25,713
25,912
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

MercadoLibre Hype Timeline

MercadoLibre is now traded for 25,713on Mexican Exchange of Mexico. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. MercadoLibre is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on MercadoLibre is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25,713. About 87.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.87. MercadoLibre recorded earning per share (EPS) of 74.02. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of December 2017. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be uncertain.
Check out MercadoLibre Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock, please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.

MercadoLibre Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to MercadoLibre's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MercadoLibre's future price movements. Getting to know how MercadoLibre rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MercadoLibre may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

MercadoLibre Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine MercadoLibre price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MercadoLibre using various technical indicators. When you analyze MercadoLibre charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About MercadoLibre Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of MercadoLibre stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MercadoLibre, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MercadoLibre based on analysis of MercadoLibre hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MercadoLibre's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MercadoLibre's related companies.

Story Coverage note for MercadoLibre

The number of cover stories for MercadoLibre depends on current market conditions and MercadoLibre's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MercadoLibre is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MercadoLibre's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

MercadoLibre Short Properties

MercadoLibre's future price predictability will typically decrease when MercadoLibre's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MercadoLibre often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MercadoLibre's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MercadoLibre's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding49.7 M
When determining whether MercadoLibre offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of MercadoLibre's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mercadolibre Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mercadolibre Stock:
Check out MercadoLibre Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock, please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.
You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for MercadoLibre Stock analysis

When running MercadoLibre's price analysis, check to measure MercadoLibre's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MercadoLibre is operating at the current time. Most of MercadoLibre's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MercadoLibre's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MercadoLibre's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MercadoLibre to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between MercadoLibre's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MercadoLibre is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MercadoLibre's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.