MercadoLibre (Mexico) Price Prediction
| MELIN Stock | MXN 23,475 252.50 1.06% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
35
Oversold | Overbought |
MercadoLibre stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of MercadoLibre shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of MercadoLibre's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of MercadoLibre and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from MercadoLibre's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with MercadoLibre, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of MercadoLibre based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The MercadoLibre stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on MercadoLibre over a specific investment horizon. Using MercadoLibre hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MercadoLibre from the perspective of MercadoLibre response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in MercadoLibre. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MercadoLibre to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MercadoLibre because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
MercadoLibre after-hype prediction price | MXN 23727.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MercadoLibre |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MercadoLibre's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MercadoLibre After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MercadoLibre at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MercadoLibre or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MercadoLibre, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MercadoLibre Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MercadoLibre's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MercadoLibre's historical news coverage. MercadoLibre's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23,725 and 23,730, respectively. We have considered MercadoLibre's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MercadoLibre is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MercadoLibre is based on 3 months time horizon.
MercadoLibre Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MercadoLibre is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MercadoLibre backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MercadoLibre, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
23,475 | 23,728 | 0.00 |
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MercadoLibre Hype Timeline
MercadoLibre is now traded for 23,475on Mexican Exchange of Mexico. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. MercadoLibre is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on MercadoLibre is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23,475. About 87.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.87. MercadoLibre recorded earning per share (EPS) of 74.02. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of December 2017. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be uncertain. Check out MercadoLibre Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock, please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.MercadoLibre Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MercadoLibre's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MercadoLibre's future price movements. Getting to know how MercadoLibre's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MercadoLibre may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.80 | 0.15 | 5.21 | (3.16) | 15.35 | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.67 | 0.11 | 6.62 | (3.88) | 16.19 | |
| MUX | McEwen Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| X | United States Steel | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.50 | (3.12) | 21.45 | |
| SCCO | Southern Copper | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 4.81 | (0.98) | 14.63 | |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.88 | |
| KBH | KB Home | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (1.36) | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.64 |
MercadoLibre Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MercadoLibre price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MercadoLibre using various technical indicators. When you analyze MercadoLibre charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About MercadoLibre Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of MercadoLibre stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MercadoLibre, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MercadoLibre based on analysis of MercadoLibre hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MercadoLibre's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MercadoLibre's related companies. Story Coverage note for MercadoLibre
The number of cover stories for MercadoLibre depends on current market conditions and MercadoLibre's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MercadoLibre is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MercadoLibre's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MercadoLibre Short Properties
MercadoLibre's future price predictability will typically decrease when MercadoLibre's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MercadoLibre often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MercadoLibre's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MercadoLibre's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.7 M |
Check out MercadoLibre Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock, please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Complementary Tools for MercadoLibre Stock analysis
When running MercadoLibre's price analysis, check to measure MercadoLibre's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MercadoLibre is operating at the current time. Most of MercadoLibre's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MercadoLibre's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MercadoLibre's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MercadoLibre to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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