Microsoft Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

MSFT -- USA Stock  

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We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Microsoft Corporation which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Microsoft hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Microsoft Corporation from the prospective of Microsoft response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Microsoft over a specific investment horizon. Please see also Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Microsoft After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Microsoft Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

October 23, 2019
137.24
Current Value
133.06
Downside
137.20
After-hype Price
141.34
Upside
Microsoft is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Microsoft is based on 3 months time horizon.

Microsoft Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.01  1.38% 0.01   0.01  10 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
137.24137.200.03 
97.87

Microsoft Hype Timeline

Microsoft is now traded for137.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Microsoft Corporation is projected to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 137.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 97.87%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.03% where as daily expected return is now at -0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Microsoft is about 147.59% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 137.23. About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.82. Microsoft recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.06. The entity last dividend was issued on 2019-08-14. The firm had 2:1 split on 2003-02-18. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 10 days.
Please see also Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Microsoft Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
EVO Payments(0.32) 6 per month 0.00 (0.07)  1.16 (1.39)  6.22 
Box 0.61 10 per month 0.00 (0.005)  2.82 (3.84)  18.65 
Evertec(0.06) 8 per month 2.17  0.05  2.42 (2.80)  18.64 
BlackLine(0.81) 11 per month 2.74  0.0203  2.84 (4.62)  39.48 
Amdocs Limited 0.25 9 per month 1.03  0.06  1.11 (1.47)  5.38 
F5 Networks 0.93 8 per month 0.00 (0.0323)  2.66 (3.19)  8.10 
Black Knight 0.41 11 per month 0.00  0.0101  1.63 (1.92)  4.96 
Five9(3.34) 9 per month 2.63  0.07  4.06 (4.46)  23.27 
Dropbox 0.00 5 per month 0.00 (0.0379)  1.62 (1.49)  5.97 
Fair Isaac Corproation(7.02) 8 per month 0.00 (0.08)  3.08 (5.45)  11.55 

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Latest Prospective on Microsoft

Please see also Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
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