Meritage Homes Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

MTH -- USA Stock  

Earnings Call : This Week

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Meritage Homes Corporation which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Meritage Homes hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Meritage Homes Corporation from the prospective of Meritage Homes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Meritage Homes over a specific investment horizon. Please see also Meritage Homes Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Meritage Homes After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Meritage Homes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

October 15, 2019
71.36
Current Value
71.53
After-hype Price
79.57
Upside
Meritage Homes is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Meritage Homes is based on 3 months time horizon.

Meritage Homes Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.45  2.68% 0.17   7.39  10 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
71.3671.530.24 
705.26

Meritage Homes Hype Timeline

On 15 of October Meritage Homes is traded for 71.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -7.39. Meritage Homes Corporation is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 71.53. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 705.26%. The price escalation on the next news is projected to be 0.24% where as daily expected return is now at 0.45%. The volatility of related hype on Meritage Homes is about 16.32% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 63.97. The company reported last year revenue of 3.48 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 205.86 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 659.9 M. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days.
Please see also Meritage Homes Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Meritage Homes Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NVR(167.56) 6 per month 1.78  0.06  2.50 (3.22)  7.70 
M D C Holdings 0.74 9 per month 1.09  0.18  3.03 (1.94)  7.14 
KB Home 0.25 11 per month 1.10  0.26  3.09 (2.58)  7.03 
D R Horton(0.52) 10 per month 0.94  0.18  2.34 (2.24)  8.19 
Lennar Corporation 0.88 9 per month 0.86  0.26  2.07 (1.76)  5.29 
MI Homes 0.23 8 per month 0.97  0.20  2.73 (2.17)  12.92 
Meritage Homes Corporation 0.38 10 per month 1.05  0.17  2.28 (1.97)  21.54 
Century Communities(0.01) 9 per month 1.77  0.1  3.07 (3.04)  9.89 
Hovnanian Enterprises 1.09 10 per month 4.81  0.23  20.10 (10.16)  31.32 
Beazer Homes USA 0.28 9 per month 1.47  0.27  4.65 (3.29)  9.04 
Please see also Meritage Homes Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
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