National Fuel Gas Stock Price Prediction
| NFG Stock | USD 53.57 0.14 0.26% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
65
Oversold | Overbought |
National Fuel Gas stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of National Fuel shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of National Fuel's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of National Fuel and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from National Fuel's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with National Fuel Gas, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting National Fuel's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.56 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.89 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.28 | Wall Street Target Price 64 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of National Fuel based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The National stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on National Fuel over a specific investment horizon. Using National Fuel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Fuel Gas from the perspective of National Fuel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National Fuel using National Fuel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National Fuel's stock price.
National Fuel Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in National Fuel's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards National. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of National Fuel stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long National Fuel may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about National Fuel and may potentially protect profits, hedge National Fuel with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 51.3815 | Short Percent 0.0458 | Short Ratio 6.68 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 51.0152 |
National Fuel Gas Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to National Fuel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around National Fuel Gas. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of National Fuel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about National Fuel.
National Fuel Implied Volatility | 29.2 |
National Fuel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Fuel Gas stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Fuel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Fuel stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Fuel's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in National Fuel. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in National Fuel to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying National because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
National Fuel after-hype prediction price | USD 53.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current National contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that National Fuel Gas will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.82% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With National Fuel trading at USD 53.57, that is roughly USD 0.98 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating National Fuel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring National Fuel Gas options at the current volatility level of 29.2%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
National |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Fuel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Fuel After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Fuel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Fuel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Fuel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Fuel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Fuel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Fuel's historical news coverage. National Fuel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.99 and 54.95, respectively. We have considered National Fuel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Fuel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Fuel Gas is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Fuel Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Fuel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Fuel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Fuel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.48 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
53.57 | 53.47 | 0.19 |
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National Fuel Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April National Fuel Gas is traded for 53.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. National is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 53.47. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on National Fuel is about 729.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.52. About 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.54. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. National Fuel Gas has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.05. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of September 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out National Fuel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.National Fuel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Fuel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Fuel's future price movements. Getting to know how National Fuel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Fuel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YPF | YPF Sociedad Anonima | 0.20 | 8 per month | 1.90 | 0.13 | 5.25 | (3.66) | 11.18 | |
| E | Eni SpA ADR | (0.52) | 8 per month | 1.22 | (0.02) | 1.74 | (1.62) | 5.48 | |
| EC | Ecopetrol SA ADR | (1.06) | 10 per month | 1.76 | 0 | 2.49 | (2.56) | 7.91 | |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE ADR | (1.07) | 13 per month | 0.88 | 0.11 | 1.81 | (1.65) | 4.92 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | 0.33 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.87 | (2.65) | 9.62 | |
| TGS | Transportadora de Gas | (0.69) | 9 per month | 2.62 | 0.04 | 6.40 | (5.21) | 21.78 | |
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | 0.35 | 10 per month | 0.29 | 0.22 | 1.68 | (1.21) | 3.93 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | 0.36 | 10 per month | 2.33 | (0) | 2.84 | (2.01) | 16.41 | |
| BP | BP PLC ADR | 0.07 | 11 per month | 0.63 | 0.11 | 1.83 | (1.30) | 8.10 | |
| GLPEY | Galp Energa | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.05 | 2.74 | (2.17) | 6.19 |
National Fuel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About National Fuel Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of National Fuel stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as National Fuel Gas, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of National Fuel based on analysis of National Fuel hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to National Fuel's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to National Fuel's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0299 | 0.037 | 0.0425 | 0.0382 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.57 | 2.19 | 1.97 | 1.33 |
Story Coverage note for National Fuel
The number of cover stories for National Fuel depends on current market conditions and National Fuel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Fuel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Fuel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National Fuel Short Properties
National Fuel's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Fuel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Fuel Gas often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Fuel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Fuel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 55.4 M |
Check out National Fuel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the National Fuel Gas information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Fuel's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis
When running National Fuel's price analysis, check to measure National Fuel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Fuel is operating at the current time. Most of National Fuel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Fuel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Fuel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Fuel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Fuel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Fuel. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Fuel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 1.96 | Earnings Share 4.77 | Revenue Per Share 22.218 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
The market value of National Fuel Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Fuel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Fuel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Fuel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Fuel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Fuel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Fuel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Fuel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.