Nl Industries Stock Price Prediction
| NL Stock | USD 7.64 0.10 1.29% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
85
Oversold | Overbought |
NL Industries stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of NL Industries shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of NL Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of NL Industries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from NL Industries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with NL Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting NL Industries' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.382 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.13 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.61 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.85 | Wall Street Target Price 5 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of NL Industries based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The NL Industries stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on NL Industries over a specific investment horizon. Using NL Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NL Industries from the perspective of NL Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NL Industries using NL Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NL Industries using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NL Industries' stock price.
NL Industries Implied Volatility | 67.33 |
NL Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NL Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NL Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NL Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when NL Industries' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in NL Industries. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in NL Industries to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying NL Industries because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
NL Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 7.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NL Industries |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NL Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NL Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NL Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NL Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NL Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NL Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NL Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NL Industries' historical news coverage. NL Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.76 and 10.66, respectively. We have considered NL Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NL Industries is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NL Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
NL Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NL Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NL Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NL Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 2.95 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.64 | 7.71 | 0.92 |
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NL Industries Hype Timeline
As of April 19, 2024 NL Industries is listed for 7.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. NL Industries is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.71 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.92%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.65%. The volatility of related hype on NL Industries is about 4916.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.60. The company generated the yearly revenue of 161.29 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (2.31 M) with gross profit of 48.8 M. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out NL Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.NL Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NL Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NL Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how NL Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NL Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AWX | Avalon Holdings | 0.00 | 5 per month | 3.03 | (0.01) | 5.00 | (6.25) | 14.00 | |
| LNZA | LanzaTech Global | (0.11) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.99 | (7.74) | 20.08 | |
| AMBI | Ambipar Emergency Response | (0.49) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.83 | (6.35) | 27.34 | |
| HNRC | Houston Natural Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 12.50 | (15.00) | 51.67 | |
| BTQNF | BQE Water | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 54.80 | |
| JPEX | JPX Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.96 | 0.05 | 20.00 | (16.67) | 41.67 | |
| SNRG | Susglobal Energy Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 10.00 | (11.11) | 29.63 | |
| SEPOF | BluMetric Environmental | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.32 | |
| AGXXF | Agilyx AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 8.82 | (3.16) | 21.65 | |
| BCCEF | BacTech Environmental | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.56 | 0.03 | 8.40 | (9.28) | 38.82 |
NL Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NL Industries price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NL Industries using various technical indicators. When you analyze NL Industries charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About NL Industries Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of NL Industries stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as NL Industries, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of NL Industries based on analysis of NL Industries hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to NL Industries's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to NL Industries's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0324 | 0.0925 | 0.0499 | 0.0861 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.56 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.59 |
Story Coverage note for NL Industries
The number of cover stories for NL Industries depends on current market conditions and NL Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NL Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NL Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NL Industries Short Properties
NL Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when NL Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NL Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NL Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NL Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 167.6 M |
Check out NL Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy NL Industries Stock please use our How to buy in NL Industries Stock guide.You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for NL Industries Stock analysis
When running NL Industries' price analysis, check to measure NL Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NL Industries is operating at the current time. Most of NL Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NL Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NL Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NL Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NL Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NL Industries. If investors know NL Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NL Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.382 | Dividend Share 0.28 | Earnings Share (0.05) | Revenue Per Share 3.303 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.08 |
The market value of NL Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NL Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NL Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NL Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NL Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NL Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NL Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NL Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NL Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.