Northrop Grumman Stock Price Prediction
| NOC Stock | USD 452.05 1.70 0.38% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Northrop Grumman stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Northrop Grumman shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Northrop Grumman's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Northrop Grumman and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Northrop Grumman's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Northrop Grumman, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Northrop Grumman's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.049 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.68 | EPS Estimate Current Year 24.65 | EPS Estimate Next Year 27.6 | Wall Street Target Price 490.74 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Northrop Grumman based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Northrop stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Northrop Grumman over a specific investment horizon. Using Northrop Grumman hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northrop Grumman from the perspective of Northrop Grumman response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northrop Grumman using Northrop Grumman's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northrop using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northrop Grumman's stock price.
Northrop Grumman Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Northrop Grumman's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Northrop. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Northrop Grumman stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Northrop Grumman may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Northrop Grumman and may potentially protect profits, hedge Northrop Grumman with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 456.1789 | Short Percent 0.0123 | Short Ratio 2.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.1 M | 50 Day MA 458.793 |
Northrop Grumman Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Northrop Grumman's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Northrop. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Northrop can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Northrop Grumman. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Northrop Grumman's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Northrop Grumman.
Northrop Grumman Implied Volatility | 48.38 |
Northrop Grumman's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northrop Grumman stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northrop Grumman's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northrop Grumman stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northrop Grumman's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Northrop Grumman. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Northrop Grumman to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Northrop because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Northrop Grumman after-hype prediction price | USD 452.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northrop contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northrop Grumman will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.02% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Northrop Grumman trading at USD 452.05, that is roughly USD 13.67 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northrop Grumman's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northrop Grumman options at the current volatility level of 48.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Northrop |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northrop Grumman's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Northrop Grumman After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Northrop Grumman at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northrop Grumman or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northrop Grumman, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Northrop Grumman Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Northrop Grumman's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northrop Grumman's historical news coverage. Northrop Grumman's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 451.20 and 453.44, respectively. We have considered Northrop Grumman's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Northrop Grumman is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northrop Grumman is based on 3 months time horizon.
Northrop Grumman Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northrop Grumman is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northrop Grumman backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northrop Grumman, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.12 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
452.05 | 452.32 | 0.06 |
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Northrop Grumman Hype Timeline
On the 18th of April 2024 Northrop Grumman is traded for 452.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Northrop is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 452.32 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 21.09%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Northrop Grumman is about 308.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 452.03. The company reported the last year's revenue of 39.29 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.06 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 7.47 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Northrop Grumman Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Northrop Grumman Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Northrop Grumman's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northrop Grumman's future price movements. Getting to know how Northrop Grumman's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northrop Grumman may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CW | Curtiss Wright | 0.31 | 11 per month | 0.57 | 0.14 | 1.51 | (1.20) | 4.29 | |
| HXL | Hexcel | 0.10 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.06 | (2.14) | 15.71 | |
| KAMN | Kaman | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.75 | (0.50) | 101.73 | |
| DCO | Ducommun Incorporated | (0.21) | 6 per month | 1.74 | 0 | 2.48 | (3.39) | 18.67 | |
| WWD | Woodward | (2.83) | 12 per month | 1.18 | 0.03 | 2.29 | (1.74) | 6.93 | |
| AIR | AAR Corp | (2.05) | 8 per month | 1.62 | 0.04 | 2.78 | (2.36) | 12.62 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 1.80 | 5 per month | 1.13 | 0.06 | 2.50 | (2.07) | 5.69 | |
| PKE | Park Electrochemical | 0.29 | 5 per month | 1.89 | 0.02 | 2.65 | (2.61) | 8.81 | |
| NPK | National Presto Industries | (0.85) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.39 | (2.42) | 6.03 | |
| ISSC | Innovative Solutions and | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.11 | (4.31) | 10.48 |
Northrop Grumman Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Northrop price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northrop using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northrop charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Northrop Grumman Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Northrop Grumman stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Northrop Grumman, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Northrop Grumman based on analysis of Northrop Grumman hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Northrop Grumman's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Northrop Grumman's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0158 | 0.0124 | 0.0157 | 0.0304 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.74 | 2.31 | 1.81 | 1.9 |
Story Coverage note for Northrop Grumman
The number of cover stories for Northrop Grumman depends on current market conditions and Northrop Grumman's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northrop Grumman is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northrop Grumman's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Northrop Grumman Short Properties
Northrop Grumman's future price predictability will typically decrease when Northrop Grumman's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northrop Grumman often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northrop Grumman's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northrop Grumman's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 152 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.1 B |
Check out Northrop Grumman Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Northrop Stock refer to our How to Trade Northrop Stock guide.You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Complementary Tools for Northrop Stock analysis
When running Northrop Grumman's price analysis, check to measure Northrop Grumman's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northrop Grumman is operating at the current time. Most of Northrop Grumman's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northrop Grumman's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northrop Grumman's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northrop Grumman to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northrop Grumman's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northrop Grumman. If investors know Northrop will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northrop Grumman listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.049 | Dividend Share 7.34 | Earnings Share 13.51 | Revenue Per Share 259.34 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.06 |
The market value of Northrop Grumman is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northrop that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northrop Grumman's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northrop Grumman's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northrop Grumman's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northrop Grumman's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northrop Grumman's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northrop Grumman is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northrop Grumman's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.