Northwestern Stock Price Prediction
NWE Stock | USD 50.45 0.05 0.1% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
62
Oversold | Overbought |
NorthWestern stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of NorthWestern shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of NorthWestern's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of NorthWestern and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from NorthWestern's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with NorthWestern, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting NorthWestern's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.143 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.24 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.49 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.69 | Wall Street Target Price 54.14 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of NorthWestern based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The NorthWestern stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on NorthWestern over a specific investment horizon. Using NorthWestern hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NorthWestern from the perspective of NorthWestern response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NorthWestern using NorthWestern's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NorthWestern using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NorthWestern's stock price.
NorthWestern Implied Volatility | 18.35 |
NorthWestern's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NorthWestern stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NorthWestern's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NorthWestern stock will not fluctuate a lot when NorthWestern's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in NorthWestern. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in NorthWestern to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying NorthWestern because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
NorthWestern after-hype prediction price | USD 50.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NorthWestern |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NorthWestern's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NorthWestern After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NorthWestern at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NorthWestern or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NorthWestern, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
NorthWestern Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NorthWestern's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NorthWestern's historical news coverage. NorthWestern's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.05 and 51.63, respectively. We have considered NorthWestern's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NorthWestern is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NorthWestern is based on 3 months time horizon.
NorthWestern Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NorthWestern is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NorthWestern backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NorthWestern, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.28 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
50.45 | 50.34 | 0.12 |
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NorthWestern Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April NorthWestern is traded for 50.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. NorthWestern is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 50.34. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on NorthWestern is about 288.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.40. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.07. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. NorthWestern has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.92. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. The firm had 1:1 split on the 2nd of October 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out NorthWestern Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.NorthWestern Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NorthWestern's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NorthWestern's future price movements. Getting to know how NorthWestern's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NorthWestern may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
ALE | Allete Inc | (0.13) | 10 per month | 1.23 | (0.02) | 2.19 | (2.24) | 6.01 | |
BKH | Black Hills | (0.06) | 7 per month | 1.40 | 0.04 | 2.94 | (2.62) | 7.36 | |
OTTR | Otter Tail | (2.86) | 9 per month | 2.19 | (0.03) | 2.82 | (2.06) | 13.66 | |
ELP | Companhia Paranaense de | 0.08 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.71 | (2.59) | 7.62 | |
AES | The AES | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.88 | (4.09) | 9.88 | |
CIG | Companhia Energetica de | (0.01) | 4 per month | 1.78 | 0.02 | 2.69 | (2.76) | 7.02 | |
MNTK | Montauk Renewables | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 6.27 | (8.96) | 22.97 |
NorthWestern Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NorthWestern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NorthWestern using various technical indicators. When you analyze NorthWestern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About NorthWestern Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of NorthWestern stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as NorthWestern, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of NorthWestern based on analysis of NorthWestern hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to NorthWestern's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to NorthWestern's related companies. 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0435 | 0.0423 | 0.0501 | 0.0314 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.15 | 2.24 | 2.16 | 2.12 |
Story Coverage note for NorthWestern
The number of cover stories for NorthWestern depends on current market conditions and NorthWestern's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NorthWestern is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NorthWestern's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NorthWestern Short Properties
NorthWestern's future price predictability will typically decrease when NorthWestern's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NorthWestern often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NorthWestern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NorthWestern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.5 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.2 M |
Check out NorthWestern Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade NorthWestern Stock refer to our How to Trade NorthWestern Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
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When running NorthWestern's price analysis, check to measure NorthWestern's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NorthWestern is operating at the current time. Most of NorthWestern's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NorthWestern's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NorthWestern's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NorthWestern to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NorthWestern's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NorthWestern. If investors know NorthWestern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NorthWestern listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.143 | Dividend Share 2.56 | Earnings Share 3.22 | Revenue Per Share 23.576 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) |
The market value of NorthWestern is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NorthWestern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NorthWestern's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NorthWestern's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NorthWestern's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NorthWestern's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NorthWestern's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NorthWestern is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NorthWestern's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.