Ollies Bargain Outlet Stock Price Prediction
| OLLI Stock | USD 74.71 0.51 0.68% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Ollies Bargain Outlet stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ollies Bargain shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ollies Bargain's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ollies Bargain and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ollies Bargain's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ollies Bargain Outlet, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ollies Bargain's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.443 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.83 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.21 | Wall Street Target Price 87.85 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.15 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ollies Bargain based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ollies stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ollies Bargain over a specific investment horizon. Using Ollies Bargain hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ollies Bargain Outlet from the perspective of Ollies Bargain response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ollies Bargain using Ollies Bargain's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ollies using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ollies Bargain's stock price.
Ollies Bargain Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ollies Bargain's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ollies. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ollies Bargain stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Ollies Bargain may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ollies Bargain and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ollies Bargain with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 74.6603 | Short Percent 0.0619 | Short Ratio 3.07 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 75.9023 |
Ollies Bargain Outlet Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ollies Bargain's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ollies. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ollies can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ollies Bargain Outlet. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ollies Bargain's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ollies Bargain.
Ollies Bargain Implied Volatility | 31.62 |
Ollies Bargain's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ollies Bargain Outlet stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ollies Bargain's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ollies Bargain stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ollies Bargain's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ollies Bargain. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ollies Bargain to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ollies because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ollies Bargain after-hype prediction price | USD 75.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ollies contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ollies Bargain Outlet will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.98% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Ollies Bargain trading at USD 74.71, that is roughly USD 1.48 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ollies Bargain's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ollies Bargain Outlet options at the current volatility level of 31.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ollies |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ollies Bargain's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ollies Bargain After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ollies Bargain at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ollies Bargain or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ollies Bargain, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ollies Bargain Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ollies Bargain's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ollies Bargain's historical news coverage. Ollies Bargain's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 73.13 and 77.31, respectively. We have considered Ollies Bargain's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ollies Bargain is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ollies Bargain Outlet is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ollies Bargain Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ollies Bargain is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ollies Bargain backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ollies Bargain, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.09 | 0.36 | 0.17 | 12 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
74.71 | 75.22 | 0.00 |
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Ollies Bargain Hype Timeline
Ollies Bargain Outlet is now traded for 74.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.36, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.17. Ollies is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 46.14%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ollies Bargain is about 100.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 74.54. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Ollies Bargain was now reported as 24.54. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.08. Ollies Bargain Outlet had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Ollies Bargain Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ollies Bargain Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ollies Bargain's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ollies Bargain's future price movements. Getting to know how Ollies Bargain's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ollies Bargain may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSMT | PriceSmart | (1.21) | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0.02 | 2.35 | (2.27) | 5.76 | |
| TBBB | BBB Foods | (0.34) | 5 per month | 2.28 | 0.07 | 4.11 | (4.08) | 14.99 | |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corp | (7.81) | 7 per month | 1.52 | (0.02) | 1.57 | (1.55) | 9.39 | |
| W | Wayfair | 2.32 | 10 per month | 3.34 | 0 | 5.52 | (5.77) | 17.70 | |
| AN | AutoNation | (2.91) | 10 per month | 1.64 | 0.04 | 3.41 | (2.94) | 8.21 | |
| BQ | Boqii Holding Limited | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 9.38 | (10.00) | 26.79 | |
| JL | J Long Group Limited | (4.55) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 17.57 | (16.87) | 108.40 |
Ollies Bargain Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ollies price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ollies using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ollies charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ollies Bargain Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ollies Bargain stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ollies Bargain Outlet, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ollies Bargain based on analysis of Ollies Bargain hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ollies Bargain's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ollies Bargain's related companies. Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise. Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Ollies Bargain operates under Discount Stores classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 4700 people.Story Coverage note for Ollies Bargain
The number of cover stories for Ollies Bargain depends on current market conditions and Ollies Bargain's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ollies Bargain is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ollies Bargain's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ollies Bargain Short Properties
Ollies Bargain's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ollies Bargain's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ollies Bargain Outlet often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ollies Bargain's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ollies Bargain's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 353.2 M |
Check out Ollies Bargain Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Complementary Tools for Ollies Stock analysis
When running Ollies Bargain's price analysis, check to measure Ollies Bargain's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ollies Bargain is operating at the current time. Most of Ollies Bargain's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ollies Bargain's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ollies Bargain's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ollies Bargain to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ollies Bargain's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ollies Bargain. If investors know Ollies will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ollies Bargain listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.443 | Earnings Share 2.92 | Revenue Per Share 34.056 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.18 | Return On Assets 0.0656 |
The market value of Ollies Bargain Outlet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ollies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ollies Bargain's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ollies Bargain's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ollies Bargain's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ollies Bargain's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ollies Bargain's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ollies Bargain is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ollies Bargain's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.