Oreilly Automotive Stock Price Prediction
| ORLY Stock | USD 1,091 10.12 0.92% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
52
Oversold | Overbought |
OReilly Automotive stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of OReilly Automotive shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of OReilly Automotive's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of OReilly Automotive and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from OReilly Automotive's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with OReilly Automotive, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting OReilly Automotive's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.107 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 9.32 | EPS Estimate Current Year 42.35 | EPS Estimate Next Year 46.9 | Wall Street Target Price 1.1 K |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of OReilly Automotive based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The OReilly stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on OReilly Automotive over a specific investment horizon. Using OReilly Automotive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of OReilly Automotive from the perspective of OReilly Automotive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards OReilly Automotive using OReilly Automotive's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards OReilly using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of OReilly Automotive's stock price.
OReilly Automotive Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in OReilly Automotive's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards OReilly. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of OReilly Automotive stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long OReilly Automotive may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about OReilly Automotive and may potentially protect profits, hedge OReilly Automotive with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 985.9044 | Short Percent 0.0121 | Short Ratio 2.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 811.5 K | 50 Day MA 1.1 K |
OReilly Automotive Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to OReilly Automotive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in OReilly. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding OReilly can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around OReilly Automotive. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of OReilly Automotive's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about OReilly Automotive.
OReilly Automotive Implied Volatility | 40.12 |
OReilly Automotive's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of OReilly Automotive stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if OReilly Automotive's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that OReilly Automotive stock will not fluctuate a lot when OReilly Automotive's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in OReilly Automotive. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in OReilly Automotive to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying OReilly because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
OReilly Automotive after-hype prediction price | USD 1101.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current OReilly contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that OReilly Automotive will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.51% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With OReilly Automotive trading at USD 1090.94, that is roughly USD 27.36 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating OReilly Automotive's daily price movement you should consider acquiring OReilly Automotive options at the current volatility level of 40.12%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
OReilly |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OReilly Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
OReilly Automotive After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of OReilly Automotive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in OReilly Automotive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of OReilly Automotive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
OReilly Automotive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting OReilly Automotive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on OReilly Automotive's historical news coverage. OReilly Automotive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,100 and 1,102, respectively. We have considered OReilly Automotive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
OReilly Automotive is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of OReilly Automotive is based on 3 months time horizon.
OReilly Automotive Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as OReilly Automotive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading OReilly Automotive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with OReilly Automotive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.15 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1,091 | 1,101 | 0.02 |
|
OReilly Automotive Hype Timeline
OReilly Automotive is now traded for 1,091. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.35. OReilly is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1101.27 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 53.99%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on OReilly Automotive is about 33.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,091. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 15.81 B. Net Income was 2.35 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.38 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out OReilly Automotive Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.OReilly Automotive Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to OReilly Automotive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict OReilly Automotive's future price movements. Getting to know how OReilly Automotive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how OReilly Automotive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.93 | 0.19 | 2.63 | (2.26) | 18.16 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | 4.73 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.09 | (2.09) | 18.35 | |
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | 2.17 | 12 per month | 1.45 | 0.16 | 3.25 | (3.39) | 22.86 | |
| RH | RH | (17.42) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.45 | (5.00) | 27.04 | |
| AZO | AutoZone | (13.16) | 11 per month | 1.18 | 0.07 | 1.67 | (1.99) | 8.78 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | (0.30) | 10 per month | 0.80 | 0.1 | 1.74 | (1.57) | 4.68 | |
| FIVE | Five Below | (6.51) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.44 | (3.39) | 18.33 | |
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts | 0.38 | 10 per month | 2.10 | 0.13 | 4.25 | (4.15) | 13.12 | |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply | (1.11) | 11 per month | 0.93 | 0.07 | 1.87 | (1.76) | 6.72 |
OReilly Automotive Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine OReilly price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for OReilly using various technical indicators. When you analyze OReilly charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About OReilly Automotive Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of OReilly Automotive stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as OReilly Automotive, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of OReilly Automotive based on analysis of OReilly Automotive hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to OReilly Automotive's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to OReilly Automotive's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Inventory Turnover | 1.71 | 1.61 | 1.74 | 1.69 | ROIC | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
Story Coverage note for OReilly Automotive
The number of cover stories for OReilly Automotive depends on current market conditions and OReilly Automotive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that OReilly Automotive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about OReilly Automotive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
OReilly Automotive Short Properties
OReilly Automotive's future price predictability will typically decrease when OReilly Automotive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of OReilly Automotive often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential OReilly Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OReilly Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 279.1 M |
Check out OReilly Automotive Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy OReilly Stock please use our How to Invest in OReilly Automotive guide.You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for OReilly Stock analysis
When running OReilly Automotive's price analysis, check to measure OReilly Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OReilly Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of OReilly Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OReilly Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OReilly Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OReilly Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world |
Is OReilly Automotive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OReilly Automotive. If investors know OReilly will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OReilly Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.107 | Earnings Share 38.46 | Revenue Per Share 261.468 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.051 | Return On Assets 0.1504 |
The market value of OReilly Automotive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OReilly that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OReilly Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OReilly Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OReilly Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OReilly Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OReilly Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OReilly Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OReilly Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.