Potbelly Co Stock Price Prediction
| PBPB Stock | USD 10.29 0.19 1.88% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
31
Oversold | Overbought |
Potbelly stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Potbelly shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Potbelly's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Potbelly and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Potbelly's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Potbelly Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Potbelly's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.02) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.23 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.29 | Wall Street Target Price 17 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Potbelly based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Potbelly stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Potbelly over a specific investment horizon. Using Potbelly hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Potbelly Co from the perspective of Potbelly response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Potbelly using Potbelly's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Potbelly using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Potbelly's stock price.
Potbelly Implied Volatility | 78.43 |
Potbelly's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Potbelly Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Potbelly's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Potbelly stock will not fluctuate a lot when Potbelly's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Potbelly. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Potbelly to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Potbelly because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Potbelly after-hype prediction price | USD 10.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Potbelly |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Potbelly's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Potbelly After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Potbelly at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Potbelly or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Potbelly, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Potbelly Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Potbelly's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Potbelly's historical news coverage. Potbelly's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.97 and 12.67, respectively. We have considered Potbelly's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Potbelly is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Potbelly is based on 3 months time horizon.
Potbelly Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Potbelly is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Potbelly backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Potbelly, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 2.35 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.29 | 10.32 | 0.29 |
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Potbelly Hype Timeline
Potbelly is at this time traded for 10.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Potbelly is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.32 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Potbelly is about 6788.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.30. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 491.41 M. Net Income was 5.58 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 126.19 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Potbelly Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Potbelly Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Potbelly's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Potbelly's future price movements. Getting to know how Potbelly's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Potbelly may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CHUY | Chuys Holdings | (0.44) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.53 | (2.53) | 8.42 | |
| FATBB | FAT Brands | (0.13) | 6 per month | 2.18 | 0.04 | 4.65 | (5.46) | 15.25 | |
| BJRI | BJs Restaurants | 0.95 | 10 per month | 2.35 | (0) | 4.22 | (3.89) | 12.17 | |
| STKS | One Group Hospitality | (0.1) | 10 per month | 3.58 | 0.03 | 6.35 | (5.28) | 30.48 | |
| FRGI | Fiesta Restaurant Group | (0.02) | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.60 | (0.35) | 7.09 | |
| LOCO | El Pollo Loco | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.89 | (3.65) | 7.26 | |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.95 | (3.53) | 8.57 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | 0.37 | 11 per month | 1.85 | 0.09 | 3.41 | (3.02) | 13.65 | |
| RUTH | Ruths Hospitality Group | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.94 | 0.09 | 1.75 | (2.63) | 34.37 | |
| BLMN | Bloomin Brands | 0.12 | 11 per month | 1.81 | 0.05 | 2.97 | (3.51) | 8.47 | |
| DENN | Dennys Corp | (0.06) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.59 | (2.93) | 9.31 | |
| NDLS | Noodles Company | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 3.86 | (8.57) | 15.31 | |
| CNNE | Cannae Holdings | (0.22) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.55 | (1.73) | 18.76 |
Potbelly Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Potbelly price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Potbelly using various technical indicators. When you analyze Potbelly charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Potbelly Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Potbelly stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Potbelly Co, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Potbelly based on analysis of Potbelly hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Potbelly's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Potbelly's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 23.82 | 25.01 | Dividend Yield | 0.23 | 0.25 |
Story Coverage note for Potbelly
The number of cover stories for Potbelly depends on current market conditions and Potbelly's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Potbelly is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Potbelly's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Potbelly Short Properties
Potbelly's future price predictability will typically decrease when Potbelly's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Potbelly Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Potbelly's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Potbelly's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33.8 M |
Check out Potbelly Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for Potbelly Stock analysis
When running Potbelly's price analysis, check to measure Potbelly's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Potbelly is operating at the current time. Most of Potbelly's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Potbelly's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Potbelly's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Potbelly to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Potbelly's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Potbelly. If investors know Potbelly will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Potbelly listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Earnings Share 0.17 | Revenue Per Share 16.828 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.047 | Return On Assets 0.0335 |
The market value of Potbelly is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Potbelly that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Potbelly's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Potbelly's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Potbelly's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Potbelly's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Potbelly's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Potbelly is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Potbelly's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.