Provident Financial Services Stock Price Prediction
| PFS Stock | USD 15.55 0.03 0.19% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
33
Oversold | Overbought |
Provident Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Provident Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Provident Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Provident Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Provident Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Provident Financial Services, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Provident Financial's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.35 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.84 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.21 | Wall Street Target Price 18.2 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Provident Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Provident stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Provident Financial over a specific investment horizon. Using Provident Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Provident Financial Services from the perspective of Provident Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Provident Financial using Provident Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Provident using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Provident Financial's stock price.
Provident Financial Implied Volatility | 62.45 |
Provident Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Provident Financial Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Provident Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Provident Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Provident Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Provident Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Provident Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Provident because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Provident Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 15.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Provident |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Provident Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Provident Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Provident Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Provident Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Provident Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Provident Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Provident Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Provident Financial's historical news coverage. Provident Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.98 and 18.22, respectively. We have considered Provident Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Provident Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Provident Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Provident Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Provident Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Provident Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Provident Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.62 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 13 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.55 | 15.60 | 0.32 |
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Provident Financial Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Provident Financial is traded for 15.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Provident is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 15.6 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Provident Financial is about 2191.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.53. The company reported the last year's revenue of 695.65 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 128.4 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 496.95 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Provident Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Provident Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Provident Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Provident Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Provident Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Provident Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Provident Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Provident price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Provident using various technical indicators. When you analyze Provident charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Provident Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Provident Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Provident Financial Services, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Provident Financial based on analysis of Provident Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Provident Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Provident Financial's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0386 | 0.0451 | 0.0537 | 0.0564 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.09 | 3.16 | 1.94 | 1.84 |
Story Coverage note for Provident Financial
The number of cover stories for Provident Financial depends on current market conditions and Provident Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Provident Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Provident Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Provident Financial Short Properties
Provident Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Provident Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Provident Financial Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Provident Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Provident Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 74.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -180.2 M |
Check out Provident Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Provident Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Provident Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Provident Stock analysis
When running Provident Financial's price analysis, check to measure Provident Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Provident Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Provident Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Provident Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Provident Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Provident Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Provident Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Provident Financial. If investors know Provident will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Provident Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | Dividend Share 0.96 | Earnings Share 1.6 | Revenue Per Share 5.883 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
The market value of Provident Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Provident that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Provident Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Provident Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Provident Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Provident Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Provident Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Provident Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Provident Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.