Progressive Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

PGR -- USA Stock  

USD 77.49  0.76  0.99%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Progressive Corporation which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Progressive hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Progressive Corporation from the prospective of Progressive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Progressive over a specific investment horizon. Additionally take a look at Progressive Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Progressive After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Progressive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

August 21, 2019
77.49
Current Value
76.70
After-hype Price
81.38
Upside
Progressive is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Progressive is based on 2 months time horizon.

Progressive Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.10% 1.58% 0.04%  0.08% 9 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
77.4976.700.04%
427.03% 

Progressive Hype Timeline

On 21 of August Progressive is traded for 77.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Progressive Corporation is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 76.7. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 427.03%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04% where as daily expected return is at this time at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Progressive is about 186.7% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 77.41. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Progressive was at this time reported as 21.98. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.96. Progressive recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.48. The entity last dividend was issued on 2019-10-04. The firm had 1:1 split on 2014-01-27. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days.
Additionally take a look at Progressive Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Progressive Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Loews Corporation(1.94) 9 per month 0.00 (0.14)  1.67 (2.05)  6.64 
Chubb Limited 3.23 6 per month 1.32  0.10  2.35 (2.48)  7.16 
EMC Insurance Group(0.05) 6 per month 0.14  0.27  0.25 (0.22)  0.75 
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HLDGS LTD(5.84) 5 per month 0.00 (0.0272)  1.42 (1.67)  13.85 
American Financial Group 0.01 7 per month 0.00 (0.0495)  1.47 (1.41)  6.15 
Atlas Financial Holdings 0.0074 7 per month 0.00 (0.27)  8.96 (7.07)  29.75 
Allstate Corporation(1.91) 8 per month 1.41  0.0312  1.91 (2.35)  8.10 
Axis Capital Holdings Limited 0.25 7 per month 0.76  0.20  1.95 (1.89)  5.82 
FedNat Holding Company 0.04 10 per month 0.00 (0.0085)  4.96 (4.79)  13.33 
CNA Financial Corporation(2.26) 8 per month 0.00  0.007  2.13 (1.68)  6.16 
Additionally take a look at Progressive Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
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