Pra Group Stock Price Prediction
| PRAA Stock | USD 24.37 0.89 3.79% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
56
Oversold | Overbought |
PRA Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of PRA shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of PRA's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of PRA and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from PRA's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PRA Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting PRA's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.28) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.62 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.82 | Wall Street Target Price 31 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of PRA based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The PRA stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on PRA over a specific investment horizon. Using PRA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PRA Group from the perspective of PRA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PRA using PRA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PRA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PRA's stock price.
PRA Implied Volatility | 53.53 |
PRA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PRA Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PRA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PRA stock will not fluctuate a lot when PRA's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in PRA. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in PRA to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying PRA because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
PRA after-hype prediction price | USD 24.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current PRA contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that PRA Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.35% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With PRA trading at USD 24.37, that is roughly USD 0.82 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating PRA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring PRA Group options at the current volatility level of 53.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
PRA |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PRA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PRA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PRA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PRA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PRA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PRA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PRA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PRA's historical news coverage. PRA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.95 and 27.79, respectively. We have considered PRA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PRA is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PRA Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
PRA Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PRA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PRA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PRA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 3.42 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.37 | 24.37 | 0.00 |
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PRA Hype Timeline
PRA Group is at this time traded for 24.37. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. PRA is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on PRA is about 1255.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.36. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.82. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PRA Group recorded a loss per share of 2.13. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of May 2007. The firm had 3:1 split on the 2nd of August 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out PRA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.PRA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PRA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PRA's future price movements. Getting to know how PRA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PRA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| V | Visa Class A | (0.91) | 9 per month | 0.95 | (0.07) | 1.27 | (1.40) | 4.97 | |
| MA | Mastercard | (0.18) | 7 per month | 0.99 | 0.02 | 1.57 | (1.43) | 6.10 | |
| OSHDF | Oshidori International Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 70082LAB3 | US70082LAB36 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.52 | (1.89) | 17.58 |
PRA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PRA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PRA using various technical indicators. When you analyze PRA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About PRA Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of PRA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as PRA Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of PRA based on analysis of PRA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to PRA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to PRA's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0298 | 0.0305 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.24 | 1.18 |
Story Coverage note for PRA
The number of cover stories for PRA depends on current market conditions and PRA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PRA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PRA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PRA Short Properties
PRA's future price predictability will typically decrease when PRA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PRA Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PRA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PRA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 113.7 M |
Check out PRA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the PRA Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other PRA's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Complementary Tools for PRA Stock analysis
When running PRA's price analysis, check to measure PRA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PRA is operating at the current time. Most of PRA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PRA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PRA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PRA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is PRA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PRA. If investors know PRA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PRA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Earnings Share (2.13) | Revenue Per Share 20.485 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.0152 |
The market value of PRA Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PRA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PRA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PRA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PRA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PRA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PRA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PRA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PRA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.