Shake Shack Stock Price Prediction
| SHAK Stock | USD 95.23 0.32 0.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
48
Oversold | Overbought |
Shake Shack stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Shake Shack shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Shake Shack's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Shake Shack and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Shake Shack's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Shake Shack, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Shake Shack's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.824 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.03 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.68 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.95 | Wall Street Target Price 105.53 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Shake Shack based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Shake stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Shake Shack over a specific investment horizon. Using Shake Shack hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shake Shack from the perspective of Shake Shack response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Shake Shack using Shake Shack's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Shake using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Shake Shack's stock price.
Shake Shack Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Shake Shack's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Shake. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Shake Shack stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Shake Shack may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Shake Shack and may potentially protect profits, hedge Shake Shack with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 74.8111 | Short Percent 0.1163 | Short Ratio 3.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.2 M | 50 Day MA 98.1408 |
Shake Shack Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Shake Shack's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Shake. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Shake can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Shake Shack. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Shake Shack's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Shake Shack.
Shake Shack Implied Volatility | 112.68 |
Shake Shack's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Shake Shack stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Shake Shack's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Shake Shack stock will not fluctuate a lot when Shake Shack's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Shake Shack. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Shake Shack to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Shake because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Shake Shack after-hype prediction price | USD 96.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Shake contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Shake Shack will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 7.04% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Shake Shack trading at USD 95.23, that is roughly USD 6.71 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Shake Shack's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Shake Shack options at the current volatility level of 112.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Shake |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shake Shack's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Shake Shack After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Shake Shack at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shake Shack or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Shake Shack, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Shake Shack Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Shake Shack's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shake Shack's historical news coverage. Shake Shack's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 92.37 and 100.35, respectively. We have considered Shake Shack's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Shake Shack is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shake Shack is based on 3 months time horizon.
Shake Shack Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Shake Shack is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shake Shack backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shake Shack, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 3.99 | 0.60 | 2.86 | 12 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
95.23 | 96.36 | 0.63 |
|
Shake Shack Hype Timeline
Shake Shack is at this time traded for 95.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.6, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 2.86. Shake is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 96.36 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.63%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.63%. The volatility of related hype on Shake Shack is about 87.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 98.09. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.09 B. Net Income was 19.81 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 313.04 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Shake Shack Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Shake Shack Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Shake Shack's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shake Shack's future price movements. Getting to know how Shake Shack's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shake Shack may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DIN | Dine Brands Global | (0.16) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.95 | (3.53) | 8.57 | |
| DPZ | Dominos Pizza | 9.23 | 10 per month | 1.20 | 0.13 | 3.42 | (1.96) | 10.39 |
Shake Shack Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Shake price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shake using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shake charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Shake Shack Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Shake Shack stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Shake Shack, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Shake Shack based on analysis of Shake Shack hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Shake Shack's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Shake Shack's related companies. | 2014 | 2019 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0525 | 0.001089 | 0.0634 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.35 | 2.75 | 2.36 |
Story Coverage note for Shake Shack
The number of cover stories for Shake Shack depends on current market conditions and Shake Shack's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shake Shack is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shake Shack's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Shake Shack Short Properties
Shake Shack's future price predictability will typically decrease when Shake Shack's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Shake Shack often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Shake Shack's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shake Shack's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 293.2 M |
Check out Shake Shack Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Shake Stock please use our How to buy in Shake Stock guide.Note that the Shake Shack information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Shake Shack's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Shake Stock analysis
When running Shake Shack's price analysis, check to measure Shake Shack's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shake Shack is operating at the current time. Most of Shake Shack's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shake Shack's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shake Shack's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shake Shack to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. |
Is Shake Shack's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shake Shack. If investors know Shake will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shake Shack listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.824 | Earnings Share 0.48 | Revenue Per Share 27.589 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.2 | Return On Assets 0.0049 |
The market value of Shake Shack is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shake that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shake Shack's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shake Shack's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shake Shack's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shake Shack's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shake Shack's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shake Shack is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shake Shack's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.