Southwestern Energy Stock Price Prediction
SWN Stock | USD 7.27 0.03 0.41% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
74
Oversold | Overbought |
Southwestern Energy stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Southwestern Energy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Southwestern Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Southwestern Energy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Southwestern Energy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Southwestern Energy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Southwestern Energy's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.19 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.58 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.29 | Wall Street Target Price 8.11 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Southwestern Energy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Southwestern stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Southwestern Energy over a specific investment horizon. Using Southwestern Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Southwestern Energy from the perspective of Southwestern Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Southwestern Energy using Southwestern Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Southwestern using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Southwestern Energy's stock price.
Southwestern Energy Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Southwestern Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Southwestern. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Southwestern Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Southwestern Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Southwestern Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Southwestern Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.6546 | Short Percent 0.0403 | Short Ratio 2.75 | Shares Short Prior Month 29.4 M | 50 Day MA 7.037 |
Southwestern Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Southwestern Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Southwestern. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Southwestern can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Southwestern Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Southwestern Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Southwestern Energy.
Southwestern Energy Implied Volatility | 51.98 |
Southwestern Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Southwestern Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Southwestern Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Southwestern Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Southwestern Energy's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Southwestern Energy. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Southwestern Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Southwestern because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Southwestern Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 7.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Southwestern contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Southwestern Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.25% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Southwestern Energy trading at USD 7.27, that is roughly USD 0.24 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Southwestern Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Southwestern Energy options at the current volatility level of 51.98%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Southwestern |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southwestern Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Southwestern Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Southwestern Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Southwestern Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Southwestern Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Southwestern Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Southwestern Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Southwestern Energy's historical news coverage. Southwestern Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.82 and 8.80, respectively. We have considered Southwestern Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Southwestern Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Southwestern Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Southwestern Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Southwestern Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Southwestern Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Southwestern Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.49 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.27 | 7.31 | 0.55 |
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Southwestern Energy Hype Timeline
On the 17th of April 2024 Southwestern Energy is traded for 7.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Southwestern is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.31 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.55%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Southwestern Energy is about 11920.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.27. The company reported the last year's revenue of 6.52 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.56 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 8.99 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Southwestern Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Southwestern Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Southwestern Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Southwestern Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Southwestern Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Southwestern Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
AR | Antero Resources Corp | 1.52 | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.14 | 3.16 | (2.57) | 13.54 | |
CHK | Chesapeake Energy Corp | (0.80) | 12 per month | 1.21 | 0.06 | 2.33 | (2.11) | 10.23 | |
EQT | EQT Corporation | 0.77 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.01 | (2.80) | 18.34 | |
MTDR | Matador Resources | 0.24 | 10 per month | 1.45 | 0.15 | 2.30 | (2.53) | 9.83 | |
RRC | Range Resources Corp | 0.30 | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.11 | 2.70 | (2.67) | 11.11 | |
FANG | Diamondback Energy | (2.59) | 10 per month | 0.51 | 0.27 | 2.04 | (1.68) | 11.14 | |
EOG | EOG Resources | 0.35 | 7 per month | 1.21 | 0.15 | 2.04 | (1.78) | 6.82 | |
PR | Permian Resources | 0.06 | 7 per month | 1.02 | 0.26 | 3.12 | (3.02) | 7.15 | |
CRK | Comstock Resources | (0.02) | 10 per month | 2.18 | 0.02 | 3.59 | (3.94) | 14.69 | |
CTRA | Coterra Energy | 0.22 | 10 per month | 1.00 | 0.05 | 2.10 | (1.67) | 7.89 | |
SBOW | SilverBow Resources | (0.19) | 11 per month | 1.80 | 0.09 | 4.24 | (2.87) | 8.88 | |
SM | SM Energy Co | 0.29 | 10 per month | 1.32 | 0.26 | 3.12 | (2.11) | 7.58 |
Southwestern Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Southwestern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Southwestern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Southwestern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Southwestern Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Southwestern Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Southwestern Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Southwestern Energy based on analysis of Southwestern Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Southwestern Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Southwestern Energy's related companies. 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00269 | 0.002555 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.11 | 2.02 |
Story Coverage note for Southwestern Energy
The number of cover stories for Southwestern Energy depends on current market conditions and Southwestern Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Southwestern Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Southwestern Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Southwestern Energy Short Properties
Southwestern Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Southwestern Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Southwestern Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Southwestern Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southwestern Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 21 M |
Check out Southwestern Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Southwestern Stock, please use our How to Invest in Southwestern Energy guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Southwestern Stock analysis
When running Southwestern Energy's price analysis, check to measure Southwestern Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southwestern Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Southwestern Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southwestern Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southwestern Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southwestern Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Southwestern Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southwestern Energy. If investors know Southwestern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southwestern Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Earnings Share 1.41 | Revenue Per Share 5.924 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.50) | Return On Assets 0.1589 |
The market value of Southwestern Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southwestern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southwestern Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southwestern Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southwestern Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southwestern Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southwestern Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southwestern Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southwestern Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.