Triumph Group Stock Price Prediction

TGI Stock  USD 15.04  0.53  3.65%   
As of 29th of March 2024, the relative strength indicator of Triumph's share price is approaching 37. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Triumph, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

37

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Triumph Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Triumph shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Triumph's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Triumph and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Triumph's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Triumph Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Triumph's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.31)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.39
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.10)
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.76
Wall Street Target Price
19.44
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Triumph based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Triumph stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Triumph over a specific investment horizon. Using Triumph hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triumph Group from the perspective of Triumph response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Triumph using Triumph's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Triumph using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Triumph's stock price.

Triumph Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Triumph's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Triumph. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Triumph stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Triumph may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Triumph and may potentially protect profits, hedge Triumph with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
11.5964
Short Percent
0.1032
Short Ratio
6.99
Shares Short Prior Month
3.4 M
50 Day MA
14.7682

Triumph Group Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Triumph's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Triumph. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Triumph can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Triumph Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Triumph's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Triumph.

Triumph Implied Volatility

    
  53.08  
Triumph's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Triumph Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Triumph's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Triumph stock will not fluctuate a lot when Triumph's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Triumph. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Triumph to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Triumph because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Triumph after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 15.05  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Triumph Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Triumph's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.0013.4616.92
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.5815.0318.49
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.9212.0013.32
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.070.210.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Triumph. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Triumph's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Triumph's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Triumph Group.

Triumph After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Triumph at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Triumph or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Triumph, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Triumph Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Triumph's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Triumph's historical news coverage. Triumph's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.59 and 18.51, respectively. We have considered Triumph's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
15.04
15.05
After-hype Price
18.51
Upside
Triumph is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Triumph Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Triumph Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Triumph is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triumph backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Triumph, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
3.46
  0.01 
  0.01 
11 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
15.04
15.05
0.07 
1,153  
Notes

Triumph Hype Timeline

On the 29th of March Triumph Group is traded for 15.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Triumph is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 15.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Triumph is about 1833.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.03. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.38 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 89.59 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 386.88 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Triumph Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Triumph Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Triumph's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Triumph's future price movements. Getting to know how Triumph rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Triumph may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AZA2Z Smart Technologies(0.06)8 per month 0.00 (0.15) 13.21 (12.78) 42.05 
CWCurtiss Wright(1.86)9 per month 0.44  0.11  1.84 (1.13) 4.29 
EHEhang Holdings 0.22 11 per month 4.61  0.07  12.47 (7.41) 22.12 
GDGeneral Dynamics 2.55 11 per month 0.34  0.04  1.47 (0.89) 6.11 
PLPlanet Labs PBC 0.02 9 per month 2.97  0.01  6.79 (4.48) 17.64 
MNTSMomentus(0.13)7 per month 0.00 (0.18) 15.69 (14.67) 65.40 
MRCYMercury Systems 0.52 12 per month 0.00 (0.14) 3.51 (3.98) 16.01 
VSECVSE Corporation(2.77)9 per month 1.78  0.10  4.56 (3.15) 11.55 

Triumph Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Triumph price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triumph using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triumph charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Triumph Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Triumph stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Triumph Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Triumph based on analysis of Triumph hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Triumph's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Triumph's related companies.
 2020 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.320.31
Price To Sales Ratio0.520.81

Story Coverage note for Triumph

The number of cover stories for Triumph depends on current market conditions and Triumph's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Triumph is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Triumph's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Triumph Short Properties

Triumph's future price predictability will typically decrease when Triumph's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Triumph Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Triumph's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triumph's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding71.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments227.4 M
When determining whether Triumph Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Triumph's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Triumph Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Triumph Group Stock:
Check out Triumph Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Triumph Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Triumph's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for Triumph Stock analysis

When running Triumph's price analysis, check to measure Triumph's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Triumph is operating at the current time. Most of Triumph's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Triumph's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Triumph's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Triumph to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Triumph's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triumph. If investors know Triumph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triumph listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.31)
Earnings Share
(0.72)
Revenue Per Share
19.77
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.089
Return On Assets
0.0552
The market value of Triumph Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triumph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triumph's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triumph's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triumph's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triumph's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triumph's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triumph is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triumph's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.