Thor Industries Stock Price Prediction
| THO Stock | USD 103.66 0.29 0.28% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
38
Oversold | Overbought |
Thor Industries stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Thor Industries shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Thor Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Thor Industries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Thor Industries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Thor Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Thor Industries' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.24 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.87 | Wall Street Target Price 105.1 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.67 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Thor Industries based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Thor stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Thor Industries over a specific investment horizon. Using Thor Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Thor Industries from the perspective of Thor Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Thor Industries using Thor Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Thor using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Thor Industries' stock price.
Thor Industries Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Thor Industries' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Thor. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Thor Industries stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Thor Industries may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Thor Industries and may potentially protect profits, hedge Thor Industries with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 106.3288 | Short Percent 0.0733 | Short Ratio 5.37 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.1 M | 50 Day MA 112.3202 |
Thor Industries Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Thor Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Thor. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Thor can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Thor Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Thor Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Thor Industries.
Thor Industries Implied Volatility | 33.66 |
Thor Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Thor Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Thor Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Thor Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when Thor Industries' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Thor Industries. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Thor Industries to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Thor because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Thor Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 103.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Thor contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Thor Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.1% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Thor Industries trading at USD 103.66, that is roughly USD 2.18 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Thor Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Thor Industries options at the current volatility level of 33.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Thor |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thor Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Thor Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Thor Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Thor Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Thor Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Thor Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Thor Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Thor Industries' historical news coverage. Thor Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 100.74 and 106.00, respectively. We have considered Thor Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Thor Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Thor Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Thor Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Thor Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Thor Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Thor Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.63 | 0.26 | 0.02 | 12 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
103.66 | 103.37 | 0.00 |
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Thor Industries Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April Thor Industries is traded for 103.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Thor is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 111.91%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Thor Industries is about 1648.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 103.64. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.4. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Thor Industries has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.75. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.05. The firm last dividend was issued on the 8th of April 2024. Thor Industries had 2:1 split on the 27th of January 2004. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Thor Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Thor Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Thor Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Thor Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Thor Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Thor Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VEEE | Twin Vee Powercats | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.06 | (9.03) | 29.09 | |
| CMOT | Curtiss Motorcycles | 0.00 | 0 per month | 9.49 | 0.05 | 17.65 | (20.00) | 89.77 | |
| MPX | Marine Products | (0.24) | 8 per month | 2.90 | 0.01 | 4.20 | (4.57) | 22.62 | |
| MCFT | MCBC Holdings | 0.02 | 7 per month | 2.53 | (0.02) | 3.73 | (4.03) | 12.10 | |
| MBUU | Malibu Boats | (2.65) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.62 | (6.08) | 20.74 | |
| EZGO | EZGO Technologies | 1.54 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 10.87 | (10.19) | 39.75 | |
| BC | Brunswick | 0.25 | 10 per month | 1.81 | (0.05) | 2.74 | (3.05) | 9.44 |
Thor Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Thor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Thor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Thor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Thor Industries Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Thor Industries stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Thor Industries, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Thor Industries based on analysis of Thor Industries hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Thor Industries's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Thor Industries's related companies. | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0139 | 0.0205 | 0.0155 | 0.0128 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.53 | 0.28 | 0.56 | 0.45 |
Story Coverage note for Thor Industries
The number of cover stories for Thor Industries depends on current market conditions and Thor Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Thor Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Thor Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Thor Industries Short Properties
Thor Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Thor Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Thor Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Thor Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thor Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 441.2 M |
Check out Thor Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Thor Stock, please use our How to Invest in Thor Industries guide.Note that the Thor Industries information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Thor Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Thor Stock analysis
When running Thor Industries' price analysis, check to measure Thor Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Thor Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Thor Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Thor Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Thor Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Thor Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Thor Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Thor Industries. If investors know Thor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Thor Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Dividend Share 1.86 | Earnings Share 5.05 | Revenue Per Share 194.511 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Thor Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Thor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Thor Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Thor Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Thor Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Thor Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Thor Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Thor Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Thor Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.