Toll Brothers Stock Price Prediction
| TOL Stock | USD 118.70 0.82 0.69% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Toll Brothers stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Toll Brothers shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Toll Brothers' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Toll Brothers and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Toll Brothers' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Toll Brothers, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Toll Brothers' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.324 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.72 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.71 | Wall Street Target Price 129.85 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.78 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Toll Brothers based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Toll stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Toll Brothers over a specific investment horizon. Using Toll Brothers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toll Brothers from the perspective of Toll Brothers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Toll Brothers using Toll Brothers' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Toll using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Toll Brothers' stock price.
Toll Brothers Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Toll Brothers' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Toll. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Toll Brothers stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Toll Brothers may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Toll Brothers and may potentially protect profits, hedge Toll Brothers with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 92.9451 | Short Percent 0.0338 | Short Ratio 1.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.5 M | 50 Day MA 117.4832 |
Toll Brothers Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Toll Brothers' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Toll. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Toll can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Toll Brothers. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Toll Brothers' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Toll Brothers.
Toll Brothers Implied Volatility | 63.88 |
Toll Brothers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toll Brothers stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toll Brothers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toll Brothers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toll Brothers' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Toll Brothers. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Toll Brothers to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Toll because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Toll Brothers after-hype prediction price | USD 118.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Toll contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Toll Brothers will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.99% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Toll Brothers trading at USD 118.7, that is roughly USD 4.74 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Toll Brothers' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Toll Brothers options at the current volatility level of 63.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Toll |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toll Brothers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Toll Brothers After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Toll Brothers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toll Brothers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Toll Brothers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Toll Brothers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Toll Brothers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toll Brothers' historical news coverage. Toll Brothers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 117.05 and 120.93, respectively. We have considered Toll Brothers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Toll Brothers is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toll Brothers is based on 3 months time horizon.
Toll Brothers Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Toll Brothers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toll Brothers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toll Brothers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.95 | 0.29 | 3.59 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
118.70 | 118.99 | 0.24 |
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Toll Brothers Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Toll Brothers is traded for 118.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 3.59. Toll is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 118.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Toll Brothers is about 17.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 122.29. The company reported the last year's revenue of 9.99 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.37 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.7 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Toll Brothers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Toll Brothers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Toll Brothers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toll Brothers' future price movements. Getting to know how Toll Brothers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toll Brothers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DHI | DR Horton | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.37 | (3.85) | 10.79 | |
| LEN | Lennar | (4.10) | 11 per month | 2.36 | (0.01) | 2.76 | (3.95) | 10.83 | |
| KBH | KB Home | 0.46 | 11 per month | 2.26 | 0.02 | 2.72 | (4.67) | 9.13 | |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 106.51 | 11 per month | 1.84 | 0.03 | 2.27 | (2.41) | 9.33 | |
| PHM | PulteGroup | 1.16 | 11 per month | 2.08 | 0.01 | 2.62 | (3.57) | 8.19 | |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | (0.38) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.65 | (5.59) | 14.15 | |
| HOV | Hovnanian Enterprises | (0.77) | 8 per month | 3.91 | (0) | 7.05 | (6.00) | 15.37 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | (0.27) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.63 | (5.54) | 10.93 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | (1.50) | 11 per month | 2.22 | 0.01 | 3.48 | (4.37) | 10.17 |
Toll Brothers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Toll price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toll using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toll charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Toll Brothers Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Toll Brothers stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Toll Brothers, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Toll Brothers based on analysis of Toll Brothers hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Toll Brothers's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Toll Brothers's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0177 | 0.0135 | 0.0128 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.49 | 0.9 | 1.26 |
Story Coverage note for Toll Brothers
The number of cover stories for Toll Brothers depends on current market conditions and Toll Brothers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Toll Brothers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Toll Brothers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Toll Brothers Short Properties
Toll Brothers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Toll Brothers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Toll Brothers often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Toll Brothers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toll Brothers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Check out Toll Brothers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Toll Stock please use our How to buy in Toll Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for Toll Stock analysis
When running Toll Brothers' price analysis, check to measure Toll Brothers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toll Brothers is operating at the current time. Most of Toll Brothers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toll Brothers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toll Brothers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toll Brothers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Toll Brothers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toll Brothers. If investors know Toll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toll Brothers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.324 | Dividend Share 0.84 | Earnings Share 12.91 | Revenue Per Share 93.707 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 |
The market value of Toll Brothers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toll that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toll Brothers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toll Brothers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toll Brothers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toll Brothers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toll Brothers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toll Brothers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toll Brothers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.