UMB Financial Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

UMBF -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with UMB Financial Corporation which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With UMB Financial hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of UMB Financial Corporation from the prospective of UMB Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on UMB Financial over a specific investment horizon. Also please take a look at UMB Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

UMB Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

UMB Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

November 20, 2019
65.76
Current Value
65.66
After-hype Price
69.59
Upside
UMB Financial is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UMB Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

UMB Financial Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.07  1.32% 0.02   0.00  8 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
65.7665.660.03 
412.50

UMB Financial Hype Timeline

UMB Financial is at this time traded for65.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. UMB Financial Corporation is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 65.66. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 412.5%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.03% where as daily expected return is at this time at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on UMB Financial is about 7333.33% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 65.76. The company reported previous year revenue of 992.91 M. Net Income was 202.54 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 941.39 M. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Also please take a look at UMB Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

UMB Financial Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BOK Financial Corporation(0.84) 8 per month 1.42 (0.0228)  2.40 (2.47)  5.35 
First Financial Bankshares 0.18 9 per month 1.57  0.023  2.13 (2.70)  6.59 
UMB Financial Corporation 0.32 8 per month 1.43 (0.0491)  2.05 (1.99)  5.84 
Texas Capital Bancshares(0.16) 11 per month 1.95 (0.0272)  3.33 (3.57)  7.27 
International Bancshares Corpor(0.11) 8 per month 0.84  0.16  2.15 (1.91)  8.22 
BancFirst Corporation 0.33 11 per month 1.11  0.0208  2.05 (2.08)  5.05 
Enterprise Financial Services C 0.12 9 per month 0.91  0.08  2.17 (1.68)  6.30 
MidWestOne Financial Group 0.18 10 per month 1.41  0.07  3.14 (2.37)  6.92 
Mackinac Financial Corporation 0.08 9 per month 0.86  0.0404  2.54 (1.48)  7.52 
First Community Corporation(0.28) 8 per month 1.01  0.05  2.68 (1.83)  7.02 

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Also please take a look at UMB Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
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