United Parcel Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

UPS -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with United Parcel Service which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With United Parcel hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of United Parcel Service from the prospective of United Parcel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on United Parcel over a specific investment horizon. Also please take a look at United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

United Parcel After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

United Parcel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Current Value
117.53
December 8, 2019
113.91
Downside
117.57
After-hype Price
121.23
Upside
United Parcel is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Parcel Service is based on 3 months time horizon.

United Parcel Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.05  1.22  0.04   0.02  10 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
117.53117.570.03 
167.12  

United Parcel Hype Timeline

On the 8th of December United Parcel Service is traded for 117.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. United Parcel Service is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 117.57. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 167.12%. The price escalation on the next news is projected to be 0.03% where as daily expected return is at this time at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on United Parcel is about 343.66% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 117.55. The company reported last year revenue of 73.37 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 5 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.13 B. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days.
Also please take a look at United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

United Parcel Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Ryder System(0.85) 9 per month 2.33  0.0085  3.96 (3.22)  12.70 
Werner Enterprises(0.14) 6 per month 1.18  0.0487  2.77 (2.06)  7.23 
United Parcel Service 0.73 10 per month 0.00 (0.09)  1.50 (1.82)  5.58 
Amerco 4.24 9 per month 2.88 (0.0137)  2.54 (1.96)  18.97 
Seaspan Corporation Seaspan Cor 0.31 3 per month 1.79  0.14  4.40 (3.59)  10.81 
United Continental Holdings In(0.20) 10 per month 2.10 (0.007)  2.07 (1.70)  11.65 
Union Pacific Corporation(1.35) 8 per month 1.32 (0.0059)  2.38 (2.52)  7.16 
Sino Global Shipping America L(0.02) 4 per month 0.00 (0.12)  5.19 (8.09)  30.40 
McDonalds Corporation 2.04 6 per month 0.00 (0.20)  1.18 (2.65)  6.86 
3M Company(1.21) 8 per month 1.45  0.0031  2.83 (2.01)  7.87 

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Also please take a look at United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Market Hitters module to find equities that experience drastic asymmetry in trading patters, price, volume, or investment outlook..
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