Wayfair Stock Price Prediction
| W Stock | USD 54.74 0.01 0.02% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
Wayfair stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Wayfair shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Wayfair's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Wayfair and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Wayfair's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Wayfair, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Wayfair's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.38) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.96 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.11 | Wall Street Target Price 68.97 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Wayfair based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Wayfair stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Wayfair over a specific investment horizon. Using Wayfair hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Wayfair from the perspective of Wayfair response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Wayfair using Wayfair's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Wayfair using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Wayfair's stock price.
Wayfair Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Wayfair's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Wayfair. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Wayfair stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Wayfair may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Wayfair and may potentially protect profits, hedge Wayfair with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 59.6089 | Short Percent 0.3303 | Short Ratio 6.15 | Shares Short Prior Month 22.5 M | 50 Day MA 58.9646 |
Wayfair Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Wayfair's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Wayfair. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Wayfair can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Wayfair. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Wayfair's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Wayfair.
Wayfair Implied Volatility | 83.17 |
Wayfair's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Wayfair stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Wayfair's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Wayfair stock will not fluctuate a lot when Wayfair's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Wayfair. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Wayfair to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Wayfair because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Wayfair after-hype prediction price | USD 54.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Wayfair contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Wayfair will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.2% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Wayfair trading at USD 54.74, that is roughly USD 2.85 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Wayfair's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Wayfair options at the current volatility level of 83.17%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Wayfair |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Wayfair's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Wayfair After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Wayfair at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Wayfair or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Wayfair, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Wayfair Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Wayfair's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Wayfair's historical news coverage. Wayfair's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.20 and 58.42, respectively. We have considered Wayfair's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Wayfair is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Wayfair is based on 3 months time horizon.
Wayfair Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Wayfair is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Wayfair backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Wayfair, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 3.61 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
54.74 | 54.81 | 0.13 |
|
Wayfair Hype Timeline
As of April 19, 2024 Wayfair is listed for 54.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Wayfair is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 54.81 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Wayfair is about 3139.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 54.75. The company reported the annual revenue of 12 B. Total Loss to common stockholders was (738 M) with gross profit before all taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.42 B. Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Wayfair Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Wayfair Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Wayfair's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Wayfair's future price movements. Getting to know how Wayfair's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Wayfair may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival | (1.06) | 9 per month | 1.60 | 0.14 | 3.49 | (2.90) | 11.59 | |
| HIBB | Hibbett Sports | 1.29 | 8 per month | 2.51 | 0.03 | 3.78 | (4.05) | 12.41 | |
| CTRN | Citi Trends | (0.33) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 4.72 | (4.82) | 13.19 | |
| ZUMZ | Zumiez Inc | 0.41 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 4.06 | (3.51) | 11.86 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | 0.33 | 8 per month | 1.94 | (0.02) | 2.71 | (2.96) | 9.04 | |
| GCO | Genesco | 0.06 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.36 | (5.48) | 16.76 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | 1.12 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.02 | (5.72) | 35.74 | |
| PLCE | Childrens Place | (0.90) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 16.46 | (16.45) | 99.19 |
Wayfair Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Wayfair price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Wayfair using various technical indicators. When you analyze Wayfair charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Wayfair Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Wayfair stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Wayfair, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Wayfair based on analysis of Wayfair hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Wayfair's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Wayfair's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0354 | 0.0314 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.59 | 0.56 |
Story Coverage note for Wayfair
The number of cover stories for Wayfair depends on current market conditions and Wayfair's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Wayfair is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Wayfair's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Wayfair Short Properties
Wayfair's future price predictability will typically decrease when Wayfair's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Wayfair often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Wayfair's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Wayfair's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Check out Wayfair Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Wayfair Stock please use our How to Invest in Wayfair guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Complementary Tools for Wayfair Stock analysis
When running Wayfair's price analysis, check to measure Wayfair's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Wayfair is operating at the current time. Most of Wayfair's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Wayfair's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Wayfair's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Wayfair to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum |
Is Wayfair's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Wayfair. If investors know Wayfair will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Wayfair listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Earnings Share (6.47) | Revenue Per Share 105.289 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.004 | Return On Assets (0.13) |
The market value of Wayfair is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Wayfair that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Wayfair's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Wayfair's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Wayfair's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Wayfair's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Wayfair's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Wayfair is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Wayfair's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.