Ypf Sociedad Anonima Stock Price Prediction
| YPF Stock | USD 19.07 0.40 2.05% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
61
Oversold | Overbought |
YPF Sociedad Anonima stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of YPF Sociedad shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of YPF Sociedad's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of YPF Sociedad and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from YPF Sociedad's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with YPF Sociedad Anonima, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting YPF Sociedad's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.78 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.43 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.76 | Wall Street Target Price 18.84 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of YPF Sociedad based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The YPF stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on YPF Sociedad over a specific investment horizon. Using YPF Sociedad hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of YPF Sociedad Anonima from the perspective of YPF Sociedad response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards YPF Sociedad using YPF Sociedad's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards YPF using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of YPF Sociedad's stock price.
YPF Sociedad Implied Volatility | 198.78 |
YPF Sociedad's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of YPF Sociedad Anonima stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if YPF Sociedad's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that YPF Sociedad stock will not fluctuate a lot when YPF Sociedad's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in YPF Sociedad. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in YPF Sociedad to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying YPF because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
YPF Sociedad after-hype prediction price | USD 19.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current YPF contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that YPF Sociedad Anonima will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 12.42% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With YPF Sociedad trading at USD 19.07, that is roughly USD 2.37 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating YPF Sociedad's daily price movement you should consider acquiring YPF Sociedad Anonima options at the current volatility level of 198.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
YPF |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of YPF Sociedad's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
YPF Sociedad After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of YPF Sociedad at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in YPF Sociedad or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of YPF Sociedad, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
YPF Sociedad Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting YPF Sociedad's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on YPF Sociedad's historical news coverage. YPF Sociedad's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.67 and 23.27, respectively. We have considered YPF Sociedad's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
YPF Sociedad is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of YPF Sociedad Anonima is based on 3 months time horizon.
YPF Sociedad Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as YPF Sociedad is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading YPF Sociedad backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with YPF Sociedad, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 2.63 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.07 | 19.47 | 1.78 |
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YPF Sociedad Hype Timeline
On the 18th of April 2024 YPF Sociedad Anonima is traded for 19.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. YPF is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 1.78%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on YPF Sociedad is about 6116.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.05. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.82 T. Total Income to common stockholders was 248.1 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 650.78 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out YPF Sociedad Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.YPF Sociedad Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to YPF Sociedad's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict YPF Sociedad's future price movements. Getting to know how YPF Sociedad's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how YPF Sociedad may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NFG | National Fuel Gas | (0.43) | 10 per month | 1.22 | 0.01 | 2.33 | (2.26) | 9.58 | |
| E | Eni SpA ADR | (0.76) | 9 per month | 1.34 | (0.05) | 1.74 | (1.84) | 5.48 | |
| EC | Ecopetrol SA ADR | (1.06) | 10 per month | 1.83 | (0.02) | 2.49 | (2.83) | 7.91 | |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE ADR | 0.16 | 12 per month | 1.11 | 0.08 | 1.81 | (1.85) | 4.92 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | 0.05 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.79 | (2.20) | 15.60 | |
| BP | BP PLC ADR | 0.44 | 11 per month | 0.74 | 0.1 | 1.83 | (1.38) | 8.10 | |
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | 0.80 | 10 per month | 0.71 | 0.14 | 1.68 | (1.22) | 3.93 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | 0.33 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.75 | (2.01) | 16.41 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.87 | (2.68) | 9.62 | |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.03 | 0.24 | 2.67 | (2.00) | 10.68 |
YPF Sociedad Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine YPF price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for YPF using various technical indicators. When you analyze YPF charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About YPF Sociedad Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of YPF Sociedad stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as YPF Sociedad Anonima, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of YPF Sociedad based on analysis of YPF Sociedad hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to YPF Sociedad's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to YPF Sociedad's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.009785 | 0.009296 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.29 | 0.28 |
Story Coverage note for YPF Sociedad
The number of cover stories for YPF Sociedad depends on current market conditions and YPF Sociedad's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that YPF Sociedad is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about YPF Sociedad's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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YPF Sociedad Short Properties
YPF Sociedad's future price predictability will typically decrease when YPF Sociedad's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of YPF Sociedad Anonima often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential YPF Sociedad's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. YPF Sociedad's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 392.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 193.4 B |
Check out YPF Sociedad Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Complementary Tools for YPF Stock analysis
When running YPF Sociedad's price analysis, check to measure YPF Sociedad's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy YPF Sociedad is operating at the current time. Most of YPF Sociedad's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of YPF Sociedad's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move YPF Sociedad's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of YPF Sociedad to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is YPF Sociedad's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of YPF Sociedad. If investors know YPF will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about YPF Sociedad listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Earnings Share (3.35) | Revenue Per Share 44.192 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.477 | Return On Assets 0.0263 |
The market value of YPF Sociedad Anonima is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of YPF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of YPF Sociedad's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is YPF Sociedad's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because YPF Sociedad's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect YPF Sociedad's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between YPF Sociedad's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if YPF Sociedad is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, YPF Sociedad's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.