Yum Brands Stock Price Prediction
| YUM Stock | USD 141.81 1.71 1.22% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
Yum Brands stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Yum Brands shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Yum Brands' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Yum Brands and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Yum Brands' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Yum Brands, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Yum Brands' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.243 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.26 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.78 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.49 | Wall Street Target Price 145.38 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Yum Brands based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Yum stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Yum Brands over a specific investment horizon. Using Yum Brands hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Yum Brands from the perspective of Yum Brands response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Yum Brands using Yum Brands' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Yum using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Yum Brands' stock price.
Yum Brands Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Yum Brands' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Yum. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Yum Brands stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Yum Brands may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Yum Brands and may potentially protect profits, hedge Yum Brands with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 130.5135 | Short Percent 0.0253 | Short Ratio 3.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.7 M | 50 Day MA 137.34 |
Yum Brands Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Yum Brands' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Yum. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Yum can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Yum Brands. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Yum Brands' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Yum Brands.
Yum Brands Implied Volatility | 21.91 |
Yum Brands' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Yum Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Yum Brands' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Yum Brands stock will not fluctuate a lot when Yum Brands' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Yum Brands. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Yum Brands to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Yum because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Yum Brands after-hype prediction price | USD 142.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Yum contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Yum Brands will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.37% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Yum Brands trading at USD 141.81, that is roughly USD 1.94 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Yum Brands' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Yum Brands options at the current volatility level of 21.91%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Yum |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Yum Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Yum Brands After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Yum Brands at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Yum Brands or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Yum Brands, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Yum Brands Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Yum Brands' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Yum Brands' historical news coverage. Yum Brands' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 141.19 and 142.97, respectively. We have considered Yum Brands' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Yum Brands is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Yum Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
Yum Brands Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Yum Brands is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Yum Brands backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Yum Brands, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 0.89 | 0.31 | 0.13 | 12 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
141.81 | 142.08 | 0.19 |
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Yum Brands Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Yum Brands is traded for 141.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.31, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.13. Yum is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 142.08 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 45.41%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Yum Brands is about 113.26%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 141.68. The company reported the last year's revenue of 7.08 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.6 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.31 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Yum Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Yum Brands Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Yum Brands' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Yum Brands' future price movements. Getting to know how Yum Brands' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Yum Brands may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SHAK | Shake Shack | (3.65) | 12 per month | 1.86 | 0.15 | 4.22 | (3.72) | 31.94 | |
| PZZA | Papa Johns International | 0.16 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.62 | (3.22) | 7.95 | |
| DPZ | Dominos Pizza | (3.41) | 10 per month | 1.25 | 0.07 | 2.14 | (1.96) | 10.39 | |
| JACK | Jack In The | (0.61) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 2.54 | (3.55) | 8.33 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | (0.70) | 9 per month | 1.82 | 0.11 | 3.87 | (3.02) | 13.65 | |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global | (0.48) | 11 per month | 2.02 | (0.03) | 2.95 | (3.53) | 8.57 | |
| RUTH | Ruths Hospitality Group | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.94 | 0.08 | 1.75 | (2.63) | 34.37 | |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International | (0.18) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.36 | (2.39) | 6.90 | |
| WING | Wingstop | (3.37) | 13 per month | 2.10 | 0.15 | 3.68 | (4.36) | 13.23 | |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | (6.68) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.63 | (1.85) | 9.35 | |
| CMG | Chipotle Mexican Grill | 9.48 | 8 per month | 0.46 | 0.18 | 2.25 | (1.34) | 8.95 | |
| WEN | The Wendys Co | 0.04 | 11 per month | 1.21 | (0.01) | 1.90 | (2.08) | 5.26 |
Yum Brands Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Yum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Yum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Yum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Yum Brands Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Yum Brands stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Yum Brands, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Yum Brands based on analysis of Yum Brands hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Yum Brands's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Yum Brands's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0144 | 0.0177 | 0.0185 | 0.0175 | Price To Sales Ratio | 6.26 | 5.35 | 5.19 | 5.45 |
Story Coverage note for Yum Brands
The number of cover stories for Yum Brands depends on current market conditions and Yum Brands' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Yum Brands is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Yum Brands' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Yum Brands Short Properties
Yum Brands' future price predictability will typically decrease when Yum Brands' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Yum Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Yum Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Yum Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 285 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 512 M |
Check out Yum Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Yum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Yum Brands guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Complementary Tools for Yum Stock analysis
When running Yum Brands' price analysis, check to measure Yum Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Yum Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Yum Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Yum Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Yum Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Yum Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Yum Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Yum Brands. If investors know Yum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Yum Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.243 | Dividend Share 2.42 | Earnings Share 5.59 | Revenue Per Share 25.181 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.008 |
The market value of Yum Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Yum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Yum Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Yum Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Yum Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Yum Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Yum Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Yum Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Yum Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.