ADTRAN Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ADTRAN shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ADTRAN's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ADTRAN and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ADTRAN's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ADTRAN Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
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EPS Estimate Next Year
Wall Street Target Price
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ADTRAN based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ADTRAN stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ADTRAN over a specific investment horizon. Using ADTRAN hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ADTRAN Inc from the perspective of ADTRAN response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ADTRAN using ADTRAN's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ADTRAN using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ADTRAN's stock price.
ADTRAN Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ADTRAN's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ADTRAN. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ADTRAN stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ADTRAN may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ADTRAN and may potentially protect profits, hedge ADTRAN with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
Shares Short Prior Month
50 Day MA
ADTRAN Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ADTRAN's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ADTRAN. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ADTRAN can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ADTRAN Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ADTRAN's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ADTRAN.
ADTRAN Implied Volatility
ADTRAN's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ADTRAN Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ADTRAN's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ADTRAN stock will not fluctuate a lot when ADTRAN's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ADTRAN. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ADTRAN to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ADTRAN because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ADTRAN after-hype prediction price
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ADTRAN contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ADTRAN Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.21% per day over the life of the 2023-10-20 option contract. With ADTRAN trading at USD8.08, that is roughly USD0.18. If you think that the market is fully incorporating ADTRAN's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ADTRAN Inc options at the current volatility level of 35.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.Check out ADTRAN Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ADTRAN's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ADTRAN in the context of predictive analytics.
ADTRAN After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ADTRAN at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ADTRAN or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ADTRAN, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
ADTRAN Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ADTRAN's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ADTRAN's historical news coverage. ADTRAN's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.01 and 11.13, respectively. We have considered ADTRAN's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
ADTRAN Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as ADTRAN is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ADTRAN backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ADTRAN, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
|Expected Return||Period Volatility||Hype Elasticity||Related Elasticity||News Density||Related Density||Expected Hype|
|0.29||3.06||0.01||0.09||11 Events / Month||4 Events / Month||In about 11 days|
|Latest traded price||Expected after-news price||Potential return on next major news||Average after-hype volatility|
ADTRAN Hype TimelineADTRAN Inc is presently traded for 8.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. ADTRAN is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 8.07. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.12% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.29%. The volatility of related hype on ADTRAN is about 1020.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 7.99. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.78. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ADTRAN Inc has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 405.0. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.92. The firm last dividend was issued on the 18th of August 2023. ADTRAN had 2:1 split on the 16th of December 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out ADTRAN Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
ADTRAN Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ADTRAN's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ADTRAN's future price movements. Getting to know how ADTRAN rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ADTRAN may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
ADTRAN Additional Predictive ModulesMost predictive techniques to examine ADTRAN price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ADTRAN using various technical indicators. When you analyze ADTRAN charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
About ADTRAN Predictive Indicators
Story Coverage note for ADTRAN
The number of cover stories for ADTRAN depends on current market conditions and ADTRAN's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ADTRAN is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ADTRAN's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ADTRAN Short Properties
ADTRAN's future price predictability will typically decrease when ADTRAN's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ADTRAN Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ADTRAN's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ADTRAN's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Check out ADTRAN Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for ADTRAN Stock analysis
When running ADTRAN's price analysis, check to measure ADTRAN's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADTRAN is operating at the current time. Most of ADTRAN's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADTRAN's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADTRAN's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADTRAN to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Is ADTRAN's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADTRAN. If investors know ADTRAN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ADTRAN listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
Revenue Per Share
Quarterly Revenue Growth
The market value of ADTRAN Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADTRAN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADTRAN's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADTRAN's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ADTRAN's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADTRAN's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ADTRAN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ADTRAN is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ADTRAN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.