Amazon Inc Stock Price Prediction

AMZN Stock  USD 174.48  0.06  0.03%   
The value of RSI of Amazon's stock price is about 65. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling a stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

65

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Amazon Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Amazon shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Amazon's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Amazon and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Amazon's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amazon Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Amazon's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
50.693
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.71
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.13
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.2
Wall Street Target Price
206.2
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Amazon based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Amazon stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Amazon over a specific investment horizon. Using Amazon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amazon Inc from the perspective of Amazon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amazon using Amazon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amazon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amazon's stock price.

Amazon Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Amazon's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Amazon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Amazon stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Amazon may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amazon and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amazon with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
143.1308
Short Percent
0.0085
Short Ratio
1.3
Shares Short Prior Month
67.1 M
50 Day MA
165.6054

Amazon Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Amazon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Amazon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amazon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amazon Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Amazon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Amazon.

Amazon Implied Volatility

    
  36.77  
Amazon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amazon Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amazon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amazon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amazon's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Amazon. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Amazon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Amazon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Amazon after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 174.48  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Amazon contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Amazon Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.3% per day over the life of the 2024-03-22 option contract. With Amazon trading at USD 174.48, that is roughly USD 4.01 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Amazon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Amazon Inc options at the current volatility level of 36.77%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amazon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amazon in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
158.85160.52191.93
Details
60 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
146.16160.61178.28
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.610.830.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amazon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amazon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amazon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Amazon Inc.

Amazon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Amazon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amazon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amazon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Amazon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Amazon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amazon's historical news coverage. Amazon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 172.81 and 176.15, respectively. We have considered Amazon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
174.48
172.81
Downside
174.48
After-hype Price
176.15
Upside
Amazon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amazon Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Amazon Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amazon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amazon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amazon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
1.69
  0.16 
  0.15 
7 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
174.48
174.48
0.00 
256.06  
Notes

Amazon Hype Timeline

Amazon Inc is presently traded for 174.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. Amazon forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.24%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Amazon is about 274.35%. The volatility of related hype on Amazon is about 274.35% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 174.63. About 63.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.36. Amazon Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 20:1 split on the 6th of June 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Amazon Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Amazon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amazon's future price movements. Getting to know how Amazon rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amazon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Amazon Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Amazon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amazon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amazon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Amazon Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Amazon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Amazon Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Amazon based on analysis of Amazon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Amazon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Amazon's related companies.
 2021 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Book Value Ratio12.427.97.5
Operating Cycle69.172.7741.81

Story Coverage note for Amazon

The number of cover stories for Amazon depends on current market conditions and Amazon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amazon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amazon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Amazon Short Properties

Amazon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Amazon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amazon Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amazon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amazon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding10.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments87.3 B
When determining whether Amazon Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amazon's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amazon Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amazon Inc Stock:
Check out Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Amazon Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amazon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Amazon Stock analysis

When running Amazon's price analysis, check to measure Amazon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amazon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amazon. If investors know Amazon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amazon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
50.693
Earnings Share
2.9
Revenue Per Share
55.783
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.139
Return On Assets
0.0465
The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amazon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.