Appian Corp Stock Price Prediction
| APPN Stock | USD 36.59 1.47 4.19% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
65
Oversold | Overbought |
Appian Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Appian Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Appian Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Appian Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Appian Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Appian Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Appian Corp's stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.17) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.68) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.13) | Wall Street Target Price 45.88 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.24) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Appian Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Appian stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Appian Corp over a specific investment horizon. Using Appian Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Appian Corp from the perspective of Appian Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Appian Corp using Appian Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Appian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Appian Corp's stock price.
Appian Corp Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Appian Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Appian. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Appian Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Appian Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Appian Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Appian Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 40.2559 | Short Percent 0.0706 | Short Ratio 3.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 2 M | 50 Day MA 36.2718 |
Appian Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Appian Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Appian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Appian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Appian Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Appian Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Appian Corp.
Appian Corp Implied Volatility | 65.86 |
Appian Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Appian Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Appian Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Appian Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Appian Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Appian Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Appian Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Appian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Appian Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 36.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Appian contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Appian Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.12% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Appian Corp trading at USD 36.59, that is roughly USD 1.51 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Appian Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Appian Corp options at the current volatility level of 65.86%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Appian |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Appian Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Appian Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Appian Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Appian Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Appian Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Appian Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Appian Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Appian Corp's historical news coverage. Appian Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.05 and 40.27, respectively. We have considered Appian Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Appian Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Appian Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Appian Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Appian Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Appian Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Appian Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 3.61 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
36.59 | 36.66 | 0.19 |
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Appian Corp Hype Timeline
Appian Corp is presently traded for 36.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.33. Appian is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 36.66 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Appian Corp is about 205.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.92. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 545.36 M. Net Loss for the year was (111.44 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 334.69 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Appian Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Appian Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Appian Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Appian Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Appian Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Appian Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SQ | Block Inc | 0.66 | 11 per month | 3.39 | 0.04 | 4.91 | (5.48) | 22.30 | |
| ADBE | Adobe Systems Incorporated | 6.22 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.95 | (3.70) | 17.01 | |
| CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings | 1.60 | 7 per month | 2.53 | (0.01) | 3.76 | (3.90) | 14.87 | |
| NET | Cloudflare | 0.08 | 11 per month | 2.28 | 0.03 | 4.61 | (3.65) | 24.93 | |
| OKTA | Okta Inc | 0.23 | 11 per month | 1.83 | 0.05 | 3.74 | (2.96) | 27.01 |
Appian Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Appian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Appian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Appian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Appian Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Appian Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Appian Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Appian Corp based on analysis of Appian Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Appian Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Appian Corp's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.004367 | 0.003882 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.05 | 8.63 |
Story Coverage note for Appian Corp
The number of cover stories for Appian Corp depends on current market conditions and Appian Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Appian Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Appian Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Appian Corp Short Properties
Appian Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Appian Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Appian Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Appian Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Appian Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 73.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 159 M |
Check out Appian Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Appian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Appian Corp guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Appian Stock analysis
When running Appian Corp's price analysis, check to measure Appian Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Appian Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Appian Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Appian Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Appian Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Appian Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Appian Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Appian Corp. If investors know Appian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Appian Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.52) | Revenue Per Share 7.46 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.155 | Return On Assets (0.10) | Return On Equity (1.13) |
The market value of Appian Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Appian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Appian Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Appian Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Appian Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Appian Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Appian Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Appian Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Appian Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.