Asml Holding Nv Stock Price Prediction
| ASML Stock | USD 892.32 9.25 1.03% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
ASML Holding NV stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ASML Holding shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ASML Holding's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ASML Holding and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ASML Holding's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ASML Holding NV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ASML Holding's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.4 | EPS Estimate Current Year 20.59 | EPS Estimate Next Year 31.42 | Wall Street Target Price 1.1 K |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ASML Holding based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ASML stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ASML Holding over a specific investment horizon. Using ASML Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ASML Holding NV from the perspective of ASML Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ASML Holding using ASML Holding's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ASML using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ASML Holding's stock price.
ASML Holding Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ASML Holding's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ASML. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ASML Holding stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ASML Holding may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ASML Holding and may potentially protect profits, hedge ASML Holding with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 754.1979 | Short Percent 0.0024 | Short Ratio 0.71 | Shares Short Prior Month 834.7 K | 50 Day MA 955.664 |
ASML Holding NV Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ASML Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ASML. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ASML can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ASML Holding NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ASML Holding's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ASML Holding.
ASML Holding Implied Volatility | 51.56 |
ASML Holding's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ASML Holding NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ASML Holding's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ASML Holding stock will not fluctuate a lot when ASML Holding's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ASML Holding. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ASML Holding to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ASML because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ASML Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 893.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ASML contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ASML Holding NV will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.22% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With ASML Holding trading at USD 892.32, that is roughly USD 28.76 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ASML Holding's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ASML Holding NV options at the current volatility level of 51.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
ASML |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASML Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ASML Holding After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ASML Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ASML Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ASML Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ASML Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ASML Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ASML Holding's historical news coverage. ASML Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 891.32 and 895.92, respectively. We have considered ASML Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ASML Holding is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ASML Holding NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
ASML Holding Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ASML Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ASML Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ASML Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.32 | 1.30 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
892.32 | 893.62 | 0.15 |
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ASML Holding Hype Timeline
ASML Holding NV is presently traded for 892.32. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. ASML is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 893.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 12.46%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on ASML Holding is about 697.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 892.34. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 27.56 B. Net Income was 7.84 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.7 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out ASML Holding Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ASML Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ASML Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ASML Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how ASML Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ASML Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KLAC | KLA Tencor | 1.70 | 12 per month | 2.18 | 0.01 | 3.09 | (3.33) | 10.12 | |
| TER | Teradyne | 1.19 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.23 | (4.08) | 8.91 | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | (0.14) | 12 per month | 1.91 | 0.06 | 4.28 | (3.32) | 12.10 | |
| AEHR | Aehr Test Systems | (0.29) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.54 | (5.85) | 32.78 | |
| PLAB | Photronics | (0.42) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.97 | (3.66) | 19.30 | |
| KLIC | Kulicke and Soffa | (0.37) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.28 | (3.67) | 13.20 | |
| ENTG | Entegris | 0.26 | 10 per month | 1.90 | (0.0004) | 3.42 | (3.65) | 10.18 | |
| IPGP | IPG Photonics | 0.73 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.19 | (2.82) | 18.60 |
ASML Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ASML price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ASML using various technical indicators. When you analyze ASML charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ASML Holding Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ASML Holding stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ASML Holding NV, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ASML Holding based on analysis of ASML Holding hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ASML Holding's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ASML Holding's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00475 | 0.008708 | 0.011 | Price To Sales Ratio | 15.48 | 9.79 | 10.27 |
Story Coverage note for ASML Holding
The number of cover stories for ASML Holding depends on current market conditions and ASML Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ASML Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ASML Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ASML Holding Short Properties
ASML Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when ASML Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ASML Holding NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ASML Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASML Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 394.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7 B |
Check out ASML Holding Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for ASML Stock analysis
When running ASML Holding's price analysis, check to measure ASML Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ASML Holding is operating at the current time. Most of ASML Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ASML Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ASML Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ASML Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ASML Holding's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ASML Holding. If investors know ASML will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ASML Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | Dividend Share 4.65 | Earnings Share 19.2 | Revenue Per Share 1.1939 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) |
The market value of ASML Holding NV is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ASML that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ASML Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ASML Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ASML Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ASML Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ASML Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ASML Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ASML Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.