Alibaba Stock Price Prediction

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BABA -- USA Stock  


Alibaba Group Holding stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alibaba Group shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alibaba Group stock future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alibaba Group Holding, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Continue to Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Search Stock Price Prediction

It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alibaba Group based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alibaba stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alibaba Group over a specific investment horizon. Using Alibaba Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alibaba Group Holding from the perspective of Alibaba Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The current year Book Value per Share is expected to grow to 236.74. The current year Current Ratio is expected to grow to 1.53
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alibaba Group. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alibaba Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alibaba because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Alibaba Group after-hype prediction price

There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
LowReal ValueHigh
LowNext ValueHigh
14 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh

Alibaba Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Alibaba Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alibaba Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Alibaba Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Alibaba Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Current Value
7th of July 2020
After-hype Price
Alibaba Group is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alibaba Group Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alibaba Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.35  2.27  1.04   1.33  9 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

Alibaba Group Hype Timeline

Alibaba Group Holding is currently traded for 240.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.33. Alibaba is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 241.04 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 76.17%. The price jump on the next news is estimated to be 0.43% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Alibaba Group is about 59.77% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 238.67. The company reported previous year revenue of 47.28 B. Net Income was 9.17 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 227.34 B. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Continue to Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alibaba Group Related Hype Analysis

At Risk
LightInTheBox Holding Co(0.03) 4 per month 3.48  0.06  8.05 (5.93)  33.71 
EBay Inc 0.28 33 per month 0.79  0.36  3.80 (2.07)  8.92 
Liquidity Services 0.20 9 per month 2.62  0.09  8.64 (4.55)  15.32 
HEALTH ADVANCE INC 0.00 7 per month 13.09  0.15  64.58 (36.25)  258.82 
Etsy Inc(1.80) 11 per month 2.81  0.31  7.53 (5.06)  30.48 
JUMIA TECHNOLOGIES AG(2.04) 6 per month 10.53  0.12  21.43 (17.02)  59.08 
Imedia Brands 0.03 8 per month 6.01  0.12  15.71 (11.65)  50.54 
JD Com Inc(44.99) 33 per month 2.70  0.13  6.49 (4.34)  15.28 
MercadoLibre 10.05 7 per month 1.99  0.23  4.83 (3.14)  23.22 
Farfetch Limited 0.32 8 per month 5.88  0.24  12.10 (7.57)  41.25 

Alibaba Group Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alibaba stock price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alibaba using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alibaba charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Cycle Indicators
Math Operators
Math Transform
Momentum Indicators
Overlap Studies
Pattern Recognition
Price Transform
Statistic Functions
Volatility Indicators
Volume Indicators
Rate of change ratio 100 scale
Plus Directional Indicator
Absolute Price Oscillator
Stochastic Fast
Average Directional Movement Index
Money Flow Index
MACD with controllable MA type
Minus Directional Movement

About Alibaba Group Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Alibaba Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alibaba Group Holding, already reflect all publically available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'text-book' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns on his or her portfolios. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of BlackBerry Limited based on analysis of Alibaba Group hews, social hype, and general headline patterns together with widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Alibaba Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alibaba Group's related companies.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Earnings per Basic Share25.0433.9239.0142.09
EBITDA Margin0.380.290.260.33

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Latest Perspective on Alibaba Group

Continue to Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Price Transformation module to use price transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
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