BASF SE (Germany) Future Price Prediction

BAS -  Germany Stock  

EUR 63.09  2.00  3.07%

BASF SE NA stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of BASF SE shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of BASF SE's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of BASF SE and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from BASF SE's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with BASF SE NA, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to BASF SE Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of BASF SE based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The BASF SE stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on BASF SE over a specific investment horizon. Using BASF SE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BASF SE NA from the perspective of BASF SE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in BASF SE. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in BASF SE to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying BASF SE because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

BASF SE after-hype prediction price

    
   63.09  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of BASF SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of BASF SE in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
56.7864.6165.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
63.2364.4565.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
63.1666.0568.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BASF SE. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BASF SE's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BASF SE's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in BASF SE NA.

BASF SE After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of BASF SE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BASF SE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of BASF SE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

BASF SE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting BASF SE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BASF SE's historical news coverage. BASF SE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 61.87 and 64.31, respectively. We have considered BASF SE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
63.09
20th of September 2021
63.09
After-hype Price
64.31
Upside
BASF SE is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BASF SE NA is based on 3 months time horizon.

BASF SE Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as BASF SE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BASF SE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BASF SE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.05  1.23  0.00   0.00  0 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
63.0963.090.00 
0.00  

BASF SE Hype Timeline

BASF SE NA is currently traded for 63.09on XETRA Stock Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. BASF SE estimated not to react to the next headlinewith price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of about 0.0%. The immediate return on the next newsis estimated to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to BASF SE is about 0.0%. The volatility of related hype on BASF SE is about 0.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 63.09. About 32.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.56. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. BASF SE NA recorded a loss per share of 0.25. The entity next dividend is scheduled to be issued on the 30th of April 2021. The firm had 2:1 split on the 27th of June 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimatedpress releasewill be in 5 to 10 days.
Continue to BASF SE Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

BASF SE Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to BASF SE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BASF SE's future price movements. Getting to know how BASF SE rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BASF SE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

BASF SE Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine BASF SE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BASF SE using various technical indicators. When you analyze BASF SE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About BASF SE Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of BASF SE stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as BASF SE NA, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of BASF SE based on analysis of BASF SE hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to BASF SE's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to BASF SE's related companies.

Story Coverage note for BASF SE

The number of cover stories for BASF SE depends on current market conditions and BASF SE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BASF SE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BASF SE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

BASF SE Short Properties

BASF SE's future price predictability will typically decrease when BASF SE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BASF SE NA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BASF SE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BASF SE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.30
Float Shares918.26M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.91M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.22M
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield5.11%
Continue to BASF SE Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the BASF SE NA information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BASF SE's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

Other Tools for BASF SE Stock

When running BASF SE NA price analysis, check to measure BASF SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BASF SE is operating at the current time. Most of BASF SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BASF SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BASF SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BASF SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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