Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock Price Prediction
| CHDN Stock | USD 119.30 1.78 1.47% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Churchill Downs rporated stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Churchill Downs shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Churchill Downs' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Churchill Downs and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Churchill Downs' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Churchill Downs Incorporated, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Churchill Downs' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 56.156 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.95 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.74 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.37 | Wall Street Target Price 143.64 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Churchill Downs based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Churchill stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Churchill Downs over a specific investment horizon. Using Churchill Downs hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Churchill Downs Incorporated from the perspective of Churchill Downs response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Churchill Downs using Churchill Downs' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Churchill using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Churchill Downs' stock price.
Churchill Downs Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Churchill Downs' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Churchill. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Churchill Downs stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Churchill Downs may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Churchill Downs and may potentially protect profits, hedge Churchill Downs with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 121.2997 | Short Percent 0.027 | Short Ratio 3.91 | Shares Short Prior Month 2 M | 50 Day MA 119.6212 |
Churchill Downs rporated Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Churchill Downs' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Churchill. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Churchill can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Churchill Downs Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Churchill Downs' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Churchill Downs.
Churchill Downs Implied Volatility | 181.5 |
Churchill Downs' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Churchill Downs Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Churchill Downs' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Churchill Downs stock will not fluctuate a lot when Churchill Downs' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Churchill Downs. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Churchill Downs to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Churchill because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Churchill Downs after-hype prediction price | USD 119.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Churchill contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Churchill Downs Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 11.34% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Churchill Downs trading at USD 119.3, that is roughly USD 13.53 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Churchill Downs' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Churchill Downs Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 181.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Churchill |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Churchill Downs After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Churchill Downs at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Churchill Downs or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Churchill Downs, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Churchill Downs Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Churchill Downs' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Churchill Downs' historical news coverage. Churchill Downs' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 118.29 and 121.57, respectively. We have considered Churchill Downs' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Churchill Downs is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Churchill Downs rporated is based on 3 months time horizon.
Churchill Downs Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Churchill Downs is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Churchill Downs backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Churchill Downs, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.64 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
119.30 | 119.93 | 0.08 |
|
Churchill Downs Hype Timeline
Churchill Downs rporated is currently traded for 119.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Churchill is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 119.93 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 101.23%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Churchill Downs is about 2429.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 119.30. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.46 B. Net Income was 417.3 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 566.4 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Churchill Downs Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Churchill Downs Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Churchill Downs' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Churchill Downs' future price movements. Getting to know how Churchill Downs' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Churchill Downs may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CVLY | Codorus Valley Bancorp | 0.12 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.23 | (2.48) | 9.16 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | (0.06) | 6 per month | 3.48 | 0.04 | 3.35 | (4.52) | 46.77 | |
| CZWI | Citizens Community Bancorp | (0.33) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.65 | (2.43) | 7.84 | |
| BRID | Bridgford Foods | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.64 | (3.03) | 8.68 |
Churchill Downs Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Churchill price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Churchill using various technical indicators. When you analyze Churchill charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Churchill Downs Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Churchill Downs stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Churchill Downs Incorporated, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Churchill Downs based on analysis of Churchill Downs hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Churchill Downs's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Churchill Downs's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.002667 | 0.003245 | 0.002671 | 0.002537 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.82 | 4.43 | 4.12 | 4.33 |
Story Coverage note for Churchill Downs
The number of cover stories for Churchill Downs depends on current market conditions and Churchill Downs' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Churchill Downs is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Churchill Downs' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Churchill Downs Short Properties
Churchill Downs' future price predictability will typically decrease when Churchill Downs' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Churchill Downs Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Churchill Downs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Churchill Downs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 144.5 M |
Check out Churchill Downs Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Churchill Downs rporated information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Churchill Downs' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Churchill Stock analysis
When running Churchill Downs' price analysis, check to measure Churchill Downs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Churchill Downs is operating at the current time. Most of Churchill Downs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Churchill Downs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Churchill Downs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Churchill Downs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Theme Ratings Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Content Syndication Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk |
Is Churchill Downs' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Churchill Downs. If investors know Churchill will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Churchill Downs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 56.156 | Dividend Share 0.382 | Earnings Share 5.49 | Revenue Per Share 32.735 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.169 |
The market value of Churchill Downs rporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Churchill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Churchill Downs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Churchill Downs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Churchill Downs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Churchill Downs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Churchill Downs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Churchill Downs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Churchill Downs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.