Harley Davidson Stock Price Prediction

HOG Stock  USD 43.74  0.08  0.18%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Harley Davidson's the stock price is roughly 69. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 29th of March 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Harley, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

69

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Harley-Davidson stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Harley Davidson shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Harley Davidson's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Harley Davidson and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Harley Davidson's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Harley Davidson, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Harley Davidson's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.33)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.81
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.17
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.68
Wall Street Target Price
44
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Harley Davidson based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Harley stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Harley Davidson over a specific investment horizon. Using Harley Davidson hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Harley Davidson from the perspective of Harley Davidson response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Harley Davidson using Harley Davidson's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Harley using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Harley Davidson's stock price.

Harley Davidson Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Harley Davidson's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Harley. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Harley Davidson stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Harley Davidson may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Harley Davidson and may potentially protect profits, hedge Harley Davidson with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
34.1219
Short Percent
0.0592
Short Ratio
4.3
Shares Short Prior Month
8.7 M
50 Day MA
37.3024

Harley-Davidson Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Harley Davidson's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Harley. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Harley can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Harley Davidson. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Harley Davidson's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Harley Davidson.

Harley Davidson Implied Volatility

    
  37.55  
Harley Davidson's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Harley Davidson stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Harley Davidson's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Harley Davidson stock will not fluctuate a lot when Harley Davidson's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Harley Davidson. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Harley Davidson to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Harley because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Harley Davidson after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 43.74  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Harley contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Harley Davidson will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.35% per day over the life of the 2024-04-05 option contract. With Harley Davidson trading at USD 43.74, that is roughly USD 1.03 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Harley Davidson's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Harley Davidson options at the current volatility level of 37.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Harley Davidson Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Harley Stock please use our How to Invest in Harley Davidson guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harley Davidson's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.4035.4348.11
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
42.9044.9346.96
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.5044.5049.40
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.281.501.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Harley Davidson. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Harley Davidson's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Harley Davidson's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Harley-Davidson.

Harley Davidson After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Harley Davidson at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Harley Davidson or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Harley Davidson, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Harley Davidson Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Harley Davidson's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Harley Davidson's historical news coverage. Harley Davidson's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.71 and 45.77, respectively. We have considered Harley Davidson's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
43.74
43.74
After-hype Price
45.77
Upside
Harley Davidson is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Harley-Davidson is based on 3 months time horizon.

Harley Davidson Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Harley Davidson is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Harley Davidson backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Harley Davidson, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.33 
2.03
  0.07 
  0.10 
11 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
43.74
43.74
0.00 
922.73  
Notes

Harley Davidson Hype Timeline

On the 29th of March Harley-Davidson is traded for 43.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Harley is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Harley Davidson is about 645.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.84. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.83. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Harley-Davidson last dividend was issued on the 1st of March 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 10th of April 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Harley Davidson Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Harley Stock please use our How to Invest in Harley Davidson guide.

Harley Davidson Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Harley Davidson's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Harley Davidson's future price movements. Getting to know how Harley Davidson rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Harley Davidson may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MBUUMalibu Boats 0.12 9 per month 0.00 (0.12) 3.62 (5.16) 20.87 
MCFTMCBC Holdings(0.31)9 per month 2.43 (0.03) 3.73 (3.21) 12.10 
BCBrunswick 2.73 11 per month 1.85 (0.07) 2.74 (3.05) 9.44 
VEEETwin Vee Powercats 0.07 6 per month 0.00 (0.18) 7.76 (7.46) 20.41 
VMARVision Marine Technologies(0.06)8 per month 0.00 (0.33) 3.90 (6.25) 17.45 
EZGOEZGO Technologies(0)1 per month 0.00 (0.11) 9.89 (9.99) 29.13 
FRZAForza X1(0.03)4 per month 0.00 (0.06) 7.27 (7.69) 32.41 
FUVArcimoto(0.03)3 per month 0.00 (0.18) 4.17 (5.77) 32.20 
ONEWOnewater Marine 0.34 7 per month 0.00 (0.11) 4.12 (5.64) 15.62 

Harley Davidson Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Harley price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Harley using various technical indicators. When you analyze Harley charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Harley Davidson Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Harley Davidson stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Harley Davidson, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Harley Davidson based on analysis of Harley Davidson hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Harley Davidson's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Harley Davidson's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio8.918.37.427.05
Short Term Coverage Ratios0.430.220.350.33

Story Coverage note for Harley Davidson

The number of cover stories for Harley Davidson depends on current market conditions and Harley Davidson's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Harley Davidson is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Harley Davidson's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Harley Davidson Short Properties

Harley Davidson's future price predictability will typically decrease when Harley Davidson's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Harley Davidson often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Harley Davidson's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harley Davidson's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding145.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.6 B
When determining whether Harley-Davidson is a strong investment it is important to analyze Harley Davidson's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Harley Davidson's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Harley Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Harley Davidson Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Harley Stock please use our How to Invest in Harley Davidson guide.
You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for Harley Stock analysis

When running Harley Davidson's price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Harley Davidson's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Harley Davidson. If investors know Harley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Harley Davidson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.33)
Dividend Share
0.66
Earnings Share
4.87
Revenue Per Share
40.993
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.08)
The market value of Harley-Davidson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harley Davidson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harley Davidson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harley Davidson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harley Davidson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harley Davidson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Harley Davidson is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harley Davidson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.