Invesco Mortgage Capital Stock Price Prediction
| IVR Stock | USD 8.37 0.12 1.45% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
Invesco Mortgage Capital stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Invesco Mortgage shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Invesco Mortgage's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Invesco Mortgage and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Invesco Mortgage's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Invesco Mortgage Capital, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Invesco Mortgage's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.13 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.51 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.85 | Wall Street Target Price 8.5 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Invesco Mortgage based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Invesco stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Invesco Mortgage over a specific investment horizon. Using Invesco Mortgage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Invesco Mortgage Capital from the perspective of Invesco Mortgage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Invesco Mortgage using Invesco Mortgage's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Invesco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Invesco Mortgage's stock price.
Invesco Mortgage Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Invesco Mortgage's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Invesco. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Invesco Mortgage stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Invesco Mortgage may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Invesco Mortgage and may potentially protect profits, hedge Invesco Mortgage with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.3208 | Short Percent 0.0683 | Short Ratio 4.19 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 8.9108 |
Invesco Mortgage Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Invesco Mortgage's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Invesco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Invesco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Invesco Mortgage Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Invesco Mortgage's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Invesco Mortgage.
Invesco Mortgage Implied Volatility | 38.12 |
Invesco Mortgage's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Invesco Mortgage Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Invesco Mortgage's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Invesco Mortgage stock will not fluctuate a lot when Invesco Mortgage's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Invesco Mortgage. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Invesco Mortgage to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Invesco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Invesco Mortgage after-hype prediction price | USD 8.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Invesco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Invesco Mortgage Capital will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.38% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Invesco Mortgage trading at USD 8.37, that is roughly USD 0.2 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Invesco Mortgage's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Invesco Mortgage Capital options at the current volatility level of 38.12%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Invesco |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Invesco Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Invesco Mortgage After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Invesco Mortgage at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Invesco Mortgage or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Invesco Mortgage, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Invesco Mortgage Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Invesco Mortgage's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Invesco Mortgage's historical news coverage. Invesco Mortgage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.46 and 10.18, respectively. We have considered Invesco Mortgage's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Invesco Mortgage is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Invesco Mortgage Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Invesco Mortgage Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Invesco Mortgage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Invesco Mortgage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Invesco Mortgage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.87 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.37 | 8.32 | 0.60 |
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Invesco Mortgage Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April Invesco Mortgage Capital is traded for 8.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Invesco is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.32. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.6%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Invesco Mortgage is about 1140.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.36. About 43.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.83. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Invesco Mortgage Capital recorded a loss per share of 0.85. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of April 2024. The firm had 1:10 split on the 6th of June 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Invesco Mortgage Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Invesco Mortgage Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Invesco Mortgage's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Invesco Mortgage's future price movements. Getting to know how Invesco Mortgage's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Invesco Mortgage may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MFA | MFA Financial | 0.21 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.18 | (3.07) | 9.21 | |
| TWO | Two Harbors Investments | (0.51) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.17 | (2.97) | 9.06 | |
| NYMT | New York Mortgage | (0.15) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.09 | (3.40) | 10.51 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | (0.33) | 12 per month | 2.24 | (0.03) | 2.73 | (4.15) | 12.01 | |
| CIM | Chimera Investment | (0.04) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.78 | (4.03) | 11.28 |
Invesco Mortgage Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Invesco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Invesco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Invesco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Invesco Mortgage Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Invesco Mortgage stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Invesco Mortgage Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Invesco Mortgage based on analysis of Invesco Mortgage hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Invesco Mortgage's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Invesco Mortgage's related companies. | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.5 | Dividend Yield | 0.23 | 0.32 | 0.26 |
Story Coverage note for Invesco Mortgage
The number of cover stories for Invesco Mortgage depends on current market conditions and Invesco Mortgage's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Invesco Mortgage is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Invesco Mortgage's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Invesco Mortgage Short Properties
Invesco Mortgage's future price predictability will typically decrease when Invesco Mortgage's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Invesco Mortgage Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Invesco Mortgage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Invesco Mortgage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 198.6 M |
Check out Invesco Mortgage Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Complementary Tools for Invesco Stock analysis
When running Invesco Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure Invesco Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Invesco Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of Invesco Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Invesco Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Invesco Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Invesco Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Invesco Mortgage's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Invesco Mortgage. If investors know Invesco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Invesco Mortgage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share (0.85) | Revenue Per Share 0.095 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) |
The market value of Invesco Mortgage Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Invesco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Invesco Mortgage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Invesco Mortgage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Invesco Mortgage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Invesco Mortgage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Invesco Mortgage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Invesco Mortgage is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Invesco Mortgage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.