Lazard Stock Price Prediction
| LAZ Stock | USD 39.30 0.33 0.83% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
48
Oversold | Overbought |
Lazard stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Lazard shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Lazard's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Lazard and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Lazard's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Lazard, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Lazard's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.466 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.41 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.02 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.21 | Wall Street Target Price 49 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Lazard based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Lazard stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Lazard over a specific investment horizon. Using Lazard hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lazard from the perspective of Lazard response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lazard using Lazard's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lazard using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lazard's stock price.
Lazard Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lazard's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lazard. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lazard stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Lazard may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lazard and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lazard with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 34.6313 | Short Percent 0.0251 | Short Ratio 1.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.1 M | 50 Day MA 39.1642 |
Lazard Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lazard's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lazard. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lazard can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lazard. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lazard's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lazard.
Lazard Implied Volatility | 39.99 |
Lazard's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lazard stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lazard's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lazard stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lazard's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Lazard. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Lazard to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Lazard because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Lazard after-hype prediction price | USD 39.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lazard contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lazard will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.5% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Lazard trading at USD 39.3, that is roughly USD 0.98 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lazard's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lazard options at the current volatility level of 39.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Lazard |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lazard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lazard After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lazard at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lazard or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lazard, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lazard Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lazard's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lazard's historical news coverage. Lazard's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.54 and 41.00, respectively. We have considered Lazard's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lazard is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lazard is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lazard Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lazard is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lazard backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lazard, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.73 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
39.30 | 39.27 | 0.08 |
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Lazard Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Lazard is traded for 39.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Lazard is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 39.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 171.29%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Lazard is about 379.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.31. About 55.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.02. Lazard recorded a loss per share of 0.9. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of February 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Lazard Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Lazard Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lazard's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lazard's future price movements. Getting to know how Lazard's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lazard may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PJT | PJT Partners | 0.53 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.42 | (2.55) | 6.64 | |
| MC | Moelis Co | 1.78 | 11 per month | 1.92 | (0.04) | 3.70 | (3.22) | 9.60 | |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey | 0.85 | 7 per month | 1.10 | 0.03 | 2.56 | (1.69) | 6.54 | |
| PIPR | Piper Sandler Companies | 0.92 | 12 per month | 1.58 | 0.08 | 2.68 | (2.52) | 12.35 | |
| PWP | Perella Weinberg Partners | 0.05 | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.19 | 4.12 | (3.85) | 16.79 | |
| EVR | Evercore Partners | (0.61) | 8 per month | 1.08 | 0.09 | 2.23 | (1.73) | 5.43 | |
| SRL | Scully Royalty | 0.17 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.77 | (4.14) | 12.30 | |
| SF | Stifel Financial | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.95 | 0.06 | 1.97 | (1.89) | 6.83 |
Lazard Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lazard price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lazard using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lazard charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Lazard Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Lazard stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Lazard, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Lazard based on analysis of Lazard hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Lazard's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Lazard's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0424 | 0.0548 | 0.0559 | 0.0694 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.41 | 1.16 | 1.21 | 1.34 |
Story Coverage note for Lazard
The number of cover stories for Lazard depends on current market conditions and Lazard's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lazard is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lazard's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lazard Short Properties
Lazard's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lazard's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lazard often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lazard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lazard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Check out Lazard Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Lazard Stock please use our How to Invest in Lazard guide.Note that the Lazard information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Lazard's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Lazard Stock analysis
When running Lazard's price analysis, check to measure Lazard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lazard is operating at the current time. Most of Lazard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lazard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lazard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lazard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lazard's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lazard. If investors know Lazard will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lazard listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.466 | Dividend Share 2 | Earnings Share (0.90) | Revenue Per Share 28.328 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.124 |
The market value of Lazard is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lazard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lazard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lazard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lazard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lazard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lazard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lazard is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lazard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.